【作者】 王平；

【导师】 綦建红；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 世界经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 早在20世纪80年代末,我国主要农产品产量就已超过美国,成为世界上农产品生产第一大国。但是,我国既非农产品贸易大国,更非农产品贸易强国,入世后更是出现了农产品贸易逆差持续且不断扩大的现象。对此,国内外学者各抒己见,本文将从一个鲜有涉及的视角——我国农业部门的FDI流入,提出有助于缓解我国农产品贸易困境的措施之一。本文在文献综述的基础上,首先分别从出口总额、进口总额和贸易差额的结构方面以及EN、HT和TC等指标所反映的贸易竞争力方面分析了我国农产品贸易困境的现状,结果显示:一方面,我国低附加值为主的农产品出口结构无法满足当今各国对加工和食品形式农产品贸易的进口需求,这是造成我国农产品贸易困境的直接原因;另一方面,我国农产品出口风险越来越大,差异化同类农产品之间的竞争已经越来越激烈,且大部分农产品贸易竞争力都在下降。由此可见,竞争日趋激烈的国际大环境和我国农产品竞争力不强之间的矛盾,是造成我国农产品贸易困境的根本原因。为了进一步解释我国农业部门FDI流入有助于解决上述农产品贸易困境,本文对我国农业部门FDI流入的贸易效应进行了理论推导。其一,通过供需曲线进行局部均衡分析,得出结论:FDI流入后我国农产品贸易量显著增大;其二,采用Goldberg和Klein(1999)的动态理论模型,对农业部门FDI流入的贸易效应进行一般均衡分析,发现农业部门FDI的流入有助于解决我国农产品的贸易困境;其三,农业部门FDI流入可通过公司内贸易、技术溢出和产业结构优化等传导渠道,来缓解我国的农产品贸易困境问题。在理论分析的基础上,本文分别从总量分析和渠道分析的角度,实证检验我国农业部门FDI流入的贸易效应。前者利用我国1983～2007年的农业部门FDI流入量和进出口贸易总量,对农业部门FDI流入的贸易效应进行协整分析和格兰杰检验,表明农业部门FDI流入有着很强的进出口调节作用;后者从农业产业结构优化的角度,利用灰色系统分析法进行渠道分析,发现农业部门FDI流入和农业产业结构优化之间存在很高的灰关联度,表明农业部门FDI流入可以通过促进农业产业结构优化进而缓解我国农产品贸易困境。在归纳总结上述结论后,本文最后有针对性地提出,我国应扩大农业部门FDI流入的规模、延伸农业部门FDI流入的产业链、调整农业部门FDI流入的区域政策和实施内外资相配套四个方面的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The production quantity of main agricultural products in China has already exceeded the US since the end of 1980s, and it becomes the largest country of agricultural production. However, China is not a large agricultural trade country, let alone it is a trade giant. And after entering WTO, agricultural trade deficit appears, lasts and expands. Opinions of scholars from home and abroad are diversified, here we do some research from specific angle that little has been involved before-the trade effect of agricultural FDI inflows, and put forward one of the measures that help to deal with the agricultural trade dilemma.Based on literature review, we do Status Contingent Analysis about the agricultural trade dilemma from aspect of the structure of export, import and balance of trade and trade competitiveness through EN, ITT and TC index. The results reveal that on the one side our low value-added agricultural export products couldn’t match the processed and high value-added import demand which is supposed to be the direct reason for this agricultural dilemma; on the other side, the agricultural export risk is becoming larger and larger and competition among discrepancy universal species is becoming more and more serious while most of the agricultural products’ international competitiveness is declining especially after WTO entering. Therefore, conflict between dramatic international competition environment and week trade competition ability is the fundamental reason for our agricultural trade dilemma.In order to further explain the relationship between agricultural FDI inflows and agricultural trade dilemma we do theoretical deduction about the trade effect of agricultural FDI inflows. First, comparing the agricultural trade amount before and after FDI inflows through supply-demand curve, it indicates that China’s agricultural trade amount has obviously been enlarged after the FDI inflows. Then, based on the dynamic theoretical model of Goldberg and Klein (1999) and apply it into the agriculture industry, we finally discovered that the inflows of FDI is helpful to resolve our trade dilemma. At last, we deeply analyze the influencing channels that help agricultural FDI inflows to function the trade dilemma such as inner company trade, technical outflows and industrial structure optimization.After the theoretical analysis we do empirical test through using total quantity analysis and channel analysis. The former part uses data of the agricultural FDI inflows and export-import amount of the year from 1983 to 2007 to do Co integration test and Granger test indicate that FDI inflows have got strong adjustment function of import and export. The latter part uses gray system analysis to discover the high gray relationship between FDI inflows and industry structure optimization from the angle of industrial structure optimization. It is obvious that the inflows of FDI could help to promote the optimization of industrial structure so that China could get rid of agricultural trade dilemma.Through concluding our research results, we finally make four relative constructive suggestions include enlarging the scale of FDI inflows, to prolong the industry chain of FDI inflows, to adjust the district policy of FDI inflows and to implement the domestic and foreign capital matching policy.更多还原