【作者】 王莉娜；

【导师】 刘振华；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 对于特大桥梁工程来说,结构在整个施工过程中处于最薄弱状态,因其技术复杂和专业化程度高而表现出典型的高风险性,其风险具有不确定性、相对性、多样性和层次复杂性的特点,施工过程中的风险是不可避免的。因此,建立和完善我国建设工程风险管理体系,做到切实有效地控制风险,避免和减少风险损失,对重大工程施工是非常重要的。本文总结了我国工程风险管理存在的问题,探讨了项目风险管理的一般过程,对项目风险分析中的风险因素作了全面识别和量化研究。并总结了风险回避、自留、转移、控制措施,以及具体风险因素的防范措施。利用模糊数学的方法进行指标权重的量化,并将层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合进行多层次模糊综合评价。结合青银高速公路济南黄河大桥,针对承包商所面临的风险进行了广泛调查,根据风险因素的来源进行分类,按青银高速公路济南黄河大桥施工工序找出工程中潜在的风险因素,对项目在整个建设过程中对工程质量、企业经济效益等有重要影响的风险因素,进行比较系统全面的确定,并将复杂的风险因素或风险事件分解成比较简单的、容易被认识的基本单元。针对青银高速公路济南黄河大桥钢箱梁顶推施工过程进行风险分析,在有限元仿真的基础上,对各工序的施工风险进行广泛的调查,进而对所有风险因素进行全面识别和量化研究,总结出钢箱梁顶推施工过程风险产生和发展的规律,提出全过程、全方位的开展风险管理工作的理论与方法,寻求度量工程项目风险的有效方法,并对制订风险管理的计划和措施进行研究归纳,最终进行规划决策,并针对评估结果给出控制和防护的措施。通过对风险的控制与风险的监督,试图从理论上、方法上为承包商提供风险管理的方法和思路,为今后的工程实践提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The weakest condition of structure usually emerges in the construction process for super cable-stayed bridges. The construction process has apparently high risk for complex technology and specialization. The uncertainty, relativity, diversity and hierarchy complexity of risk in construction is apparent, which lead to the inevitability of risk in the constrution. Therefor, it is crucial for the construction of important projects to develop and improve the construction risk management system, effectively control the risk to avoid and decrease the loss of risk.This paper analyzed the deficiency of risk management in our country, discussed the risk management process of projects, identified and researched on the risk facors in the risk analysis of project. Also, the measurement of risk prevention, risk reservation, risk diversion and risk control as well as the prevention measurement for the risk factors are summarized in this paper. The theory of fuzzy mathematics is applied to the quantization of index weights. Moreover, the paper applies the combination of analytic hierarchy process and vague assessment method into the multiplayer fuzzy synthetic evaluation.Based on the extensive investigation of the risk of Jinan Yellow River Cable-Stayed Bridge, this paper concluded the potential risk factors of projects according to construction procedures of Jinan Yellow River Cable-Stayed Bridge, comprehensively confirmed the risk factors which have important effects on engineering quality and enterprise economic benefits, and separated complicated risk factors into simple basic units.The risk analysis is applied to the construction process of Jinan Yellow River Cable-Stayed Bridge. Based on the finite element simulation, the paper extensively investigated the construction risk of every procedure, identified and researched on all the risk facors, summarized the development regulations of the risk in the incremental launching construction process of the steel box girder, proposed the theory of omnidirectionally developing the risk management, researched on the effective method of measuring the risk of engineering projects, concluded the scheme for establishing the risk management, finally processed planning decision and proposed the measures on control and defense based on the evaluation results. Based on the risk control and supervision, the paper researched on the method of the risk management and provides references for other engineering projects.更多还原