【作者】 朱波；

【导师】 于良春；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国民经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国饮料业取得了飞速发展。但是,在我国由计划经济向社会主义市场经济转变的过程中,因为行政性分权、晋升机制等体制和制度因素的影响,我国出现了严重的行政垄断现象。该现象使我国饮料业出现了诸如产业结构不合理、R&D投入偏低等问题,最终导致我国饮料业技术效率(TE:TechnicalEfficiency,下同)偏低,并引发了效率损失(EL,Efficiency Loss,下同)。基于此,本文采用了1988年到2005年的省际样本数据,从现状、理论、模型和实证四个方面详细分析行政垄断对我国饮料业技术效率和效率损失的影响,并对政府如何发展饮料业提出了一些政策建议。本文主要围绕以下几个问题展开讨论:第一是现状和理论方面:我国饮料业的现状如何?什么因素导致我国饮料业出现各种问题?行政垄断的制度、体制因素有哪些?行政垄断如何在理论上影响我国饮料业的技术效率和效率损失?第二是模型和实证方面:计算我国饮料业技术效率和效率损失的方法有哪些?与我国饮料业技术效率和效率损失有关的效率有哪些?如何定义和计算这些相关效率?行政垄断对技术效率和效率损失的影响有多大?第三是结论与建议方面:如何消除行政垄断对我国饮料业的负面影响?本文运用的测算模型和分析方法如下:在现状和理论部分,本文运用了行政垄断理论和SCP(Structure-Conduct-Perfomance,下同)分析框架来解释行政垄断对技术效率和效率损失的影响基理;在模型和实证部分,本文采用了数据包络分析法(DEA:Data Envelopment Analysis,下同)和随机前沿分析法(SFA:Stochastic Frontier Analysis,下同)对我国各省份饮料业的技术效率进行了测算和分析。同时,本文还采用了基于“加权求值”法的不变规模报酬DEA模型(CRS-DEA:Constant Returns to Scale-DEA,下同)和可变规模报酬DEA模型(VRS-DEA:Variable Returns to Scale-DEA,下同)来测算行政垄断导致的效率损失。本文在以下几个方面进行了尝试和创新:第一,率先选择了饮料业行业,并使用了长达18年的样本数据来分析行政垄断下我国该行业技术效率的变动情况;第二,为了克服单一模型的弊端,本文同时使用了SFA模型、CRS-DEA模型和VRS-DEA模型来测算我国各省份饮料业的技术效率,并对测算结果进行了相关性、一致性和差异性检验;第三,为了满足SFA模型十分苛刻的数据要求,本文采用了DEA模型对2088个样本数据进行了数据筛选;第四,为了消除不确定性,本文采用了“加权求值”法取代了传统的“影子价格”法来测算行政垄断导致的效率损失;第五,为了克服现有文献对测算结果分析简陋的缺点,本文从整体趋势、时间分布、地区分布、频率分布、要素种类等多个方面对结果进行了系统的分析。当然,因为现有文献对我国饮料业的研究较少,尤其是对我国饮料业的技术效率和效率损失的研究较少,所以本文难免有一些不足之处。通过现状、理论、模型和实证分析后,我们得出如下结论:第一,SFA模型、CRS-DEA模型和VRS-DEA模型测算出来的我国各省份饮料业的技术效率虽然有所上升,但在行政垄断的影响下,它们的绝对值偏低。同时,三种模型测算的结果满足一致性、相关性和差异性检验。第二,行政垄断下,我国饮料业的产业技术效率、产业纯技术效率、产业规模效率和产业结构效率在波动中缓慢增长,但绝对值较低。第三,行政垄断导致了高达10%的效率损失,尽管在我国努力消除行政垄断的过程中,这个效率损失有所下降(8.9%)。基于这些结论,对于如何发展我国饮料业,我们提出了以下几点政策建议:第一,注重要素投入,合理配置要素比例;第二,完善转移支付制度,缩小地区差距,促进产业升级;第三,各省根据各自的情况,具体问题具体分析;第四,打破行政垄断,全面提高技术效率。其中,打破行政垄断是重中之重,我们认为政府可以从以下几个方面来努力:(1)建立科学的官员晋升和考核机制;(2)调整税费关系,完善地方的税收体系;(3)合理界定各级政府的事权和投融资权;(4)转变政府职能;(5)减少政府对企业的干预,实现政企分开;(6)精简政府机构和人员;(7)完善法律体系,建立良好的竞争环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 The beverage industry of China has developed significantly since 1978. However, the administrative monopoly (hereafter, AM) is severe, because of the revenue and finance reform, civil servant promotion mechanism and other reasons which resulted from the transition economy. The AM makes the beverage industry of China have lots of problems, such as the unreasonable industrial frame. What is worse, technical efficiency (hereafter, TE) has to be smaller, for the AM which results in efficiency loss (hereafter, EL). In this thesis, we employ the provincial data, 1988-2005, to analyze how the AM affects the TE and EL, not only on aspects of status quo and theory, but also on model and demonstration. The policy recommendations can be found in the last part of this thesis.We focus on the following questions in my thesis: First, the questions about status quo and theory analysis. What about the status quo of beverage industry of China? What are reasons for the problems of beverage industry? Are there any institutional reasons for the AM? How the AM impacts the EL and TE? Second,questions about model and demonstration analysis. What are the methods to calculate the TE and EL? Are there any relevant efficiency with the TE and EL? How to account these efficiencies, if they do exist? What about the degree of influences from the AM on TE and EL? Third, questions about conclusions and recommendations. How to clear the side effect of the AM?The models and methods employed are following: First of all, we use the local AM theory, especially its theory about resource collocation, and Structure-Conduct-Performance (hereafter, SCP) frame to explain the theory how the AM effects on TE and EL. Secondly, the Data Envelopment Analysis (hereafter, DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (hereafter, SFA) are the two main models employed to calculate the provincial TE, while the Constant Returns to Scale-DEA (hereafter, CRS-DEA) model and Variable Returns to Scale-DEA (hereafter, VRS-DEA) model are being employed to estimate the industrial TE and EL.The innovations can be identified obviously: First, this is the first thesis with topic about beverage industry of China. Second, we use three models, such as SFA model, CRS-DEA model and VRS-DEA, to eliminate the weakness of one model. What is more, the tests of correlation, consistence and difference can not be neglected in this thesis. Third, we will filtrate the 2088 data, because the SFA model is so strict with the data. Fourth, we replace the method of shadow-price by the method of weighted-evaluation, for the sake of dispelling the uncertainty. Fifth, in order to analyze the consequences clearly, we explain the details from the facets of whole trend, period distribution, frequency distribution, types of materials and so on. It is hard to avoid weakness in this thesis, because there are just a few relevant papers on this subject.There are three main conclusions that we make: Firstly, the results of TE from SFA model, CRS-DEA model and VRS-DEA model went up in the past 18 years. But their absolute values were small, under the influence of AM. Further more, the three results satisfied the qualities of correlation, consistence and difference tests. Secondly, the absolute values of industrial TE, industrial pure efficiency, industrial scale efficiency, and industrial frame efficiency were not big enough, although they raised during the program of frequency. Thirdly, the EL caused by AM was as huge as 10% of the total sales income. Fortunately, this EL reduced in recent year, from 10% to 8.9%.We supply four policy recommendations: (1) pay attention to inputting enough resources, and arrange the proportion rationally ;(2) ameliorate fiscal transfer payment system, lessen the area gap, accelerate the industry promotion; (3) look for the point which can be broke through, focus on the provincial characteristic; (4) break the AM, improve the TE generally. We should keep in mind that the fourth one is the key. So we think that government can employ the following methods to remove the AM: First, set up the sound civil servant promotion institution; Second, mend the local fiscal system; Third, compartmentalize the powers of different government, in particular the powers of management, financing and investment; Forth, change the functions of governments; Fifth,reduce the interference by the government, and separate the government and companies; Sixth,simplify the scale of government, and reduce the number of civil servant; Last but not least, improve the judicature system, create a better competition environment.更多还原