宏观层面因素对债务期限结构的影响研究

【作者】 周平；

【导师】 胡荣花；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 债务期限结构决策不仅直接影响债务人的融资成本、流动性风险、投资决策,还在很大程度上关系到债权人的经济效益与经营风险,影响到投资者对债务人的投资风险和价值的判断。从更深的层次来说,债务期限结构还会影响到宏观层面资金的流动和配置效率,对经济增长造成影响。因此,研究导致不同债务期限结构的影响因素,引导企业合理选择债务期限结构,无论对促进微观层面的债务人、债权人和投资人的良性发展,还是对推动宏观层面的资本市场和金融体系的规范完善都具有较强的现实意义。本文从宏观经济政策、经济发展状况、金融资本市场以及相关法律环境这四个方面入手,系统地对影响我国上市公司债务期限结构的宏观层面因素进行了理论分析和实证检验。具体而言,除导论和研究结论外,全文共分为三个部分。各部分的主要内容如下:第一部分为我国上市公司债务期限结构特征。运用描述性统计方法对我国上市公司的融资状况、债务期限结构的整体特征进行了分析。总体而言,现阶段我国上市公司较多利用债务融资,融资方式主要是利用短期借款。第二部分为宏观层面因素影响债务期限结构选择的理论分析。在对我国上市公司所处的宏观环境整体分析的基础上,分别从宏观经济政策、经济发展状况、金融资本市场以及相关法律环境这四个角度,分析了宏观因素变化对上市公司债务期限结构的影响,提出了全文的研究假设。第三部分为宏观层面因素影响债务期限结构选择的实证检验。本章在理论分析的基础上,建立了时间序列模型。以1995-2007年13年间我国所有非金融上市公司为样本,考察宏观因素时间序列上的变化对债务期限结构的影响。实证检验结果表明,宏观层面因素会对我国上市公司债务期限结构的选择造成重要影响。本文研究的创新之处主要体现在以下:1.本文将西方债务期限结构理论与我国上市公司所处的宏观环境相结合,分别从宏观经济政策、经济发展状况、金融资本市场以及相关法律环境的视角来寻找上市公司债务期限结构的影响因素。2.本文克服了以往债务期限结构理论专注于从债务人(上市公司)自身特征出发寻找影响因素的局限,从宏观层面因素这一视角出发,将债权人和债务人都涵盖在考察范围之中。更多还原

【Abstract】 The decision-making of debt maturity structure not only directly affects the debtor’s financing costs, liquidity risk, investment decision, but also affects the creditor’s economic benefits and operational risks to a large extent. At a deeper level, the debt maturity structure will also affect the investors’ judgments of the risk and value to the debtor, affect the macro-level capital flows and the capital allocation efficiency to the country. Therefore, the research of this theme is with significant practical importance.This paper suggests a general framework to understand the debt maturity structure. Concentrated on different Micro-level factors, the dissertation makes theoretical analysis and empirical testing on the determinants of debt maturity structures of Chinese listed companies.In addition to Introduction and research conclusions, this paper is divided into four parts. The main contents of each part are as follows:Part 1 is focus on the characteristic of debt maturity structure in Chinese listed companies. The paper analyzes the financing condition, characteristic of different industry. Generally speaking, nowadays Chinese List Company favors debt financing, especially on short debt. There is distinct difference in different industry.Part 2 analyzes theoretically how Micro-level factors affect debt maturity structure from the following four aspects: the economic development, macroeconomic policies, financial and capital market development and the legal environment.In part 3, the author construct a time series model to studies the choice of debt maturity structure of Chinese listed companies affected by Micro-level factors. The author regarded the whole non-financial listed companies as the sample of observation, to test if the changes of macro-level factors on time series have influence on debt maturity structure. The result shows that the changes of Micro-level factors have important influence on debt maturity structure of Chinese listed companies.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly, this paper is a complement of existing research for debt maturity structure, which empirically analyses the debt maturity choice of Chinese listed companies based on extant works in western developed countries and institutional characteristic of transition economy in China.Secondly, this paper tries to explain the formation of our list companies’ debt maturity structure from the game relationship between the debtor and the creditor, which overcomes the shortcoming that only focuses on the debtor (listed company) to study the debt maturity structure.更多还原