【作者】 吴凡；

【导师】 刘起勇； 王劲峰；

【作者基本信息】 中国疾病预防控制中心 ， 流行病与卫生统计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 白纹伊蚊Aedes albopictus,即亚洲虎蚊,是全球最具侵袭性的蚊种,近年来已传至北美、南美、欧洲和非洲大陆等至少28个国家。白纹伊蚊是一种重要的病媒生物,它具有攻击性很强的白昼嗜人习性并且能够传播多种病毒,包括登革热、罗斯河病毒和西尼罗病毒。携带有蚊卵的旧轮胎是白纹伊蚊向潜在适生区扩散的常见方式。根据历史资料,白纹伊蚊在中国的分布界线为:北至沈阳,西北至陇县和宝鸡,西南至西藏。分布线走向大致为,自沈阳向西南斜向河北宣化,经山西、陕西的韩城、铜川、陇县、宝鸡和阳平关,四川的雅安、九龙、盐边,折向西,达西藏南部的察隅、墨脱,连到不丹、尼泊尔。本研究基于白纹伊蚊的生物学特征和种群分布现状,利用地理信息系统GIS、基于生物气候原理的CLIMEX模型和基于生态位原理的GARP模型,分别分析了白纹伊蚊在我国的适生范围和适生程度,预测了白纹伊蚊在我国的适生分布区。结果表明我国的许多省市都是白纹伊蚊的适生区,主要集中在南方地区,最适宜的分布区是北纬30°以南,即海南、台湾、广东、广西、福建、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、重庆和云南等省。西北边界延伸至四川的东南部和陕西、山西、河北、辽宁四省的南部、以及甘肃和西藏的局部地区。通过结合近年(1990-2008)及历史(1914-1989)的登革热流行情况,我们确定了中国登革热流行的高风险省份及地区,北纬25°以南的热带及邻近的亚热带区域流行风险最高,南方的其他地区也需要警惕登革热的传入。我们预测了白纹伊蚊在中国的适生区并做出了登革热的风险分析,对白纹伊蚊和登革热的监测重点和制定方案具有一定的参考价值。各种适生区模型也可以应用于其他病媒生物及病原体的预测预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It has colonized at least 28 countries in North America, South America, Europe and Africa. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of scrap tires with eggs. According to the record, the known distribution of Ae. albopictus in China was described as limited to a north-and-west boundary line from northern Liaoning province to southwestern Tibet; in detail, Shenyang in Liaoning province, Xuanhua in Hebei province, Hancheng, Tongchuan, Longxian, Baoji and Yang Pingguan in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, Ya’an, Jiulong, Yangbian in Sichuan province, and Chayu, Motuo in Tibet.Based on biological character and collected field data of Ae. albopictus, we use GIS analysis, GARP model and CLIMEX model to predict the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus separately. The results show that many provinces and cities are the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in China, with southern areas below latitude 30 degrees N most suitable. We combine the predicted distribution with epidemics of dengue in recent years (1990-2008) and history (1914-1989) to develop a list of provinces and regions most at risk for future epidemics of dengue in China. The highest risk areas exist in the tropical and subtropical regions below latitude 25 degrees N, including Guangxi, Hainan , Taiwan provinces, etc.; while other parts in the Southeastern China are also identified as high risk. Supplementary strategies for sentinel surveillance, biosecurity measures and delimitation surveys in the event of Ae. albopictus introduction can be made based on our predicted distribution and the risk forecasting for future epidemics. Methods used here can also be used to predict the potential distribution of other vectors or pathogens.更多还原