【作者】 林玲；

【导师】 江希钿；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 森林经理学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究从提高用材林资产评估的客观性出发,在系统阐述用材林评估方法的基础上,选择通用的方法——市场比较法为研究对象。研究过程中引入了灰色关联分析、模糊聚类分析及层次分析法对市场比较法应用过程中影响因素权重的确定、参考案例的选择、修正系数的确定等问题进行全面的分析。通过对用材林资产评估市场比较法的改进的研究,不仅有利于国家对森林资源价格的宏观调控,而且能为经营者提供正确的营林决策提供依据。本文主要研究结果如下:1.本文全面而系统地研究了用材林资产评估中市场比较法应用的理论与实践,在市场比较法中引入灰色关联分析、模糊数学方以及层次分析法,系统分析了用材林资产评估中市场比较法的理论基础、应用条件、方法步骤;详细讨论了在运用市场比较法时影响用材林资产价格的各影响因素的选择及其量化的修正;重点针对运用市场比较法进行用材林资产评估时可比案例的选择问题做了较深刻分析并提出可行的解决办法。2.利用灰色关联分析理论对用材林资产中各价格影响因素与价格的关联程度大小作出分析。用材林资产价格的变化受多种因素的影响,各种因素的影响程度也是不一样的。因此分析影响用材林资产价格的影响因素及其影响程度具有现实意义和适用价值。灰色关联分析法对样本的多少和有无规律都适用,计算量小,分析结果准确,在用材林资产评估中有着很高的使用价值和广泛的应用前景。3.引入模糊聚类分析求取可比案例。在当前用材林资产评估市场比较法的应用过程中,可比案例的选择一般是由估价师根据经验确定的,具有一定的主观性。模糊数学可以定量的描述参考案例与待估对象之间的相似程度,本文通过选取适当的置信度水平,将待估对象和参考案例聚类,由模糊相似度的大小来判断待估对象和参考案例之间的相似程度的高低。这样可以解决运用市场比较法进行用材林资产评估时如何选择与待估对象最相似的参考案例的问题。4.通过层次分析法确定可比案例权重。层次分析法是一种定性与定量相结合的多目标决策方法。将其用于确定可比案例相对于待估案例的权重,简便合理,而且对定量指标和定性指标均适用。对于林业调查中有的数据无法采集,周期长,易造成数据丢失的情况,更能体现其优越性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to improve the objectivity of the assessment of timber assets by systemic studies on market comparison approach of timber assets, choose the common method - market comparison approach as study object. The study introduces grey theory, fuzzy cluster analysis method and AHP to make a comprehensive analysis to determine the weight of factors, the choice of reference case, the correction factor. Through the study on improved market comparison approach of timber assets, it’s not only conductive for the national macro to control the price of forest resources, but also for decision-making of forest management, the main conclusions are as following:1. This study makes a comprehensive and systematic study on theory and practice of the market comparison approach in the application, introduces the grey theory, fuzzy cluster analysis method, AHP, analysis the theoretical basis, application conditions, methods steps of market comparison approach in timber assets , systematically discussed the choice of influencing factors of asset prices and the amendment of quantitative detail, makes more profound analysis on the choice of comparable case and propose viable solutions.2. Using grey theory analysis the associated degree of influencing factors of price. The price of timber asset are influenced by various factors, the impact of each factor are different. Grey theory is low request on samples number and regulation, small amount of calculation, and its results are accurate, it has high value and broad application prospects in timber asset.3. Introducing fuzzy cluster analysis method to choose comparable case. Currently, the choices of comparable case are decided on the experience of assessors, which has a certain degree of subjectivity. Fuzzy math could descript the similarity between reference case and objects quantitatively, this study choose a suitable confidence level, cluster reference case and objects, judged the magnitude of similarity degree of reference case and objects through the magnitude of fuzzy similarity. It could solve the problem of how to choose the most similar object when using the market comparison method to assessment the timber asset.4. Determining the weight of comparable cases though AHP.AHP is a multi-objective decision-making method that combined qualitative and quantitative. Using it to determine the weight of reference case and objects, simplify and reasonable, it is applicable to the quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators. It is superior for some situation in forestry survey that some data can not be collected, long cycle or losing data easily.更多还原