汇率制度选择研究

【作者】 王莉；

【导师】 许少强；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 汇率制度是国家经济制度的重要组成部分,恰当的汇率制度是一国经济增长的重要保证之一,因而如何选择一个适合的汇率制度具有重要的现实意义。国外成功的汇率制度安排虽然具有一定的借鉴意义,但是历史经验告诉我们,汇率制度选择始终是因国因时而异,充分考虑本国汇率制度选择影响因素的实际情况才是做出正确决策的必要条件。目前,中国的汇率制度存在许多问题。人民币汇率缺乏足够的弹性,因而对中国货币政策的有效性和独立性存在一定的制约作用;市场供求关系在外汇定价过程中的作用还不突出,不可避免的会影响资源在配置过程中的效率;汇制改革相应的配套措施并不完善,国内尚不发达的金融市场无法为微观主体提供必要的工具来充分规避汇率风险,这些问题都是未来汇率制度改革道路上需要一一化解的。人民币从盯住美元走向浮动只是漫长汇率制度变迁史上具有转折意义的一步,中国的改革之路任重道远,汇率制度的改革亦是如此。本文共分五章,主要内容如下:第一章,序言。本节主要对研究背景、研究思路和方法进行概述,并对一些基本概念进行了界定。第二章,汇率制度选择的理论综述。本节对汇率制度选择理论进行了回顾与综述,是全文的理论基础和铺垫。理论综述主要分为三个部分:传统理论、最新发展和关于人民币汇率制度安排的研究综述。传统理论主要从固定汇率和浮动汇率的优劣之争,政策搭配论,经济结构特征论以及其它关于中间汇率制度的理论这几个方面展开。汇率制度选择理论研究的一个新的高潮出现在20世纪90年代金融危机之后,国际学术界开始从汇率制度的可持续性和危机预防这个角度重新审视各国汇率制度的选择问题,最具争议的“中间制度消失论”也是在这一时期提出来的。第三章,汇率制度选择的实践研究。本节利用IMF(国际货币基金组织)新的事实分类法,对其成员国所实行的严格固定汇率制、中间汇率制和浮动汇率制的比例变化进行比较研究,没有发现支持“中空假说”的证据。大多数国家在汇率制度选择过程中都是从本国的实际经济情况出发,而国与国之间的差异也将意味着汇率制度多元化仍然会是国际汇率体系的重要特征之一。这一结论对于中国汇率制度的选择也有一定的指导意义,中国作为最大的发展中国家,和其他发展中国家一样,在目前国内金融市场很不发达的情况下,实行中间汇率制度有利于国内经济的稳定和发展,中间汇率制度作为中国目前汇率制度的安排仍会继续存在。第四章,汇率制度选择的实证分析。在文轩的中间-两极汇率制度选择模型的启发下,本文通过对157个国家1999-2008年之间汇率制度选择数据进行研究,建立了八种汇率制度的多元离散选择模型,并依据模型结果对中国汇率制度的选择进行了相关分析。第五章,全文的总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 The exchange rate regime is an important component of the economic system. It is important for the country to choose an appropriate exchange rate regime to ensure the economic growth. Although we can learn from the successful examples of other countries, the right choose can only be made after we take all the influential factors into account.Currently, the present exchange rate system has many problems. The movement of RMB exchange rate still lack of adequate flexibility, which constrains the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy in China. The price of RMB hasn’t exactly reflected the relationship between the market supply and demand, which may influence the allocation of social resources. The undeveloped financial market can’t provide the market participants with sufficient financial instruments to avoid exchange rate risk, so we have a lot of work to improve the supporting measures for the exchange rate regime reform. These are the problem we need to solve on the way we move forward. The transition from traditional pegged system to managed floating system is just a small but important step in the history of exchange rate regime reform.The main content of the whole paper is structured as follows:Section 1, introduces research background ,thinking and method of this paper, and defines some basic conceptsSection 2, reviews and summarizes the theory about the choice of exchange rate regime. This part is divided into three parts: traditional theories、new theories on the choice of exchange rate regime and researches on Chinese exchange rate regime arrangement. The traditional theory of exchange rate regime includes argues between fixed peg arrangement and floating arrangement, theory about the exchange rate regime with appropriate financial policies, economic structural characteristics on the choice of exchange rate regime and other theory supporting intermediate regimes. Since 1990s, currency crises worldwide have led to a new climax in this field. Experts and scholars begin to re-examine theories on the choice of exchange rate system from the view of sustainability and crisis prevention. The most controversial theory "Hollowing-out hypothesis of intermediate regimes" was put forward in that period.Section 3, using the IMF de facto classification, the paper analyses the ratio change of IMF members on strictly fixed exchange rate regime, middle exchange rate regime and free floating exchange rate regime, and finds no support for "the Hollow hypothesis". The ratio change of exchange rate regimes in developing countries, the cost of using strictly fixed exchange rate regime and the constraints of using floating exchange rate regime prove that on the long run, the middle exchange rate regime is still the choice of many developing countries, and exchange rate arrangement diversification is still dominant characteristic of international exchange rate regimes. As the biggest developing country, China should choose the middle exchange rate regime because at present, like most of developing countries, Chinese financial market is underdeveloped, and the middle exchange rate regime benefits the stability and the development of domestic economic.Section 4, with the inspiration got from Wen xuan’s model about choosing exchange rate regime among the extremes and the middle regimes and researches on the historical data of 157 countries from 1999 to 2008; this section sets up a multilevel nominal response model to reflect how the theoretical factors influence the exchange rate arrangement. According to the result of demonstration, this section gives some comments on China’s exchange rate arrangement reform.Section 5, Conclusion of this paper更多还原