节点文献
金地集团股票估值
The Valuation on Gemale Corporation’s Stock
【作者】 吴文;
【导师】 戴亦一;
【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 , 工商管理, 2008, 硕士
【副题名】自由现金流量折现法
【摘要】 2005年5月我国对上市公司正式买施股权分置改革,从而使得中国资本市场历史遗留的制度性缺陷得到了基本的解决,为中国证券市场长期健康稳定发展打下了坚实的基础。目前,股权分置改革已接近尾声,中国的证券市场价值投资的功能得以逐步实现。但中国证券市场仍很不成熟,特别是股权分置改革开始后的三年股票指数暴涨暴跌,投资者损失巨大。面对中国证券市场的现状,为取得合理的投资回报,投资者应树立价值投资的理念,注重上市公司的基本面和成长性的分析,从而进行理性投资。在中国经济持续快速稳健发展、城市化进程不断深化和人民币升值的背景下,中国的房地产行业发展前景广阔。本文分析在上海证券交易所上市的金地(集团)股份有限公司(600383,SH)的投资价值,并对该公司的股票价格进行初步的估值。全文共分为五个部分。第一部分是绪论,提出了本文的选题背景、研究内容、方法和意义;第二部分分别介绍了价值投资理论、企业价值评估理论和企业价值评估的现金流量折现法,为本文的理论基础;第三部分采用先外后内的方法,分别对宏观经济、房地产行业和金地集团进行分析,重点分析了金地集团的赢利能力和经营风险。第四部分以金地集团的历史经营绩效为基础,并估计了金地集团未来经营的几个关键指标,利用自由现金流量折现法对金地集团股票进行估值。第五部分是结语,以金地集团投资价值的分析结果出发,提出投资者应进一步树立投资于成长型上市公司的投资理念,从而分享中国经济快速稳健成长带来的经济成果。
【Abstract】 In May 2005, China’s listed companies started the share-trading reform, which basically solved the systemic defect in the China’s capital market, and laid a solid foundation for the long-term, healthy and stable development of the China’s securities market. Now, China’s share-trading reform is nearing completion. The function of value investment in China’s securities market began to achieve gradually. But China’s securities market is still immature. After the share-trading reform, the stock index soar and plummet deeply in the past three years, speculators loss a lot. In order to make a reasonable return in China’s ’immature’ securities market, investor’s shall establish the concept of the value investment, which focus on the company’s fundamental and future growth, and make rational investment.In the context of the sustained, rapid and sound development of the Chinese economy, the deepen process of urbanization and the appreciation of the RMB, the real estate developments in China have broad prospects. This thesis analyses the investment value of Gemdale corporation (600383, SH), and make an initial valuation on its share.This thesis is comprised of five portions. The first part is introduction, explaining the background, content, methods, and meaning of this thesis. The second part introduces the theory of investment value, the assessment of the enterprise’s value theory and the discounted cash flow method of the enterprise’s value respectively, which constitutes the theoretical basis of this thesis. The third part analysis the macroeconomics, the real estate industry and the Gemdale corporation respectively, mainly focus on the Gemdale corporation’s profitability and business risk. Based on the Gemdale corporation’s historical operating performance, and estimate some key operational indicators of corporation’s future operations, the forth part estimates the stock valuation of Gemdale corporation through the discounted free cash flow approach. The fifth part is closing mark, which point out that investors shall establish the concept of invest in the high growth company, so as to share the fruits of the sustained, rapid and sound development of the Chinese economy.
- 【网络出版投稿人】 厦门大学 【网络出版年期】2009年 11期
- 【分类号】F832.51;F279.26
- 【被引频次】12
- 【下载频次】1415