【作者】 李蔚蔚；

【导师】 魏晓琴；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 区域经济差异的存在是一个不容质疑的客观事实,也是经济发展的客观规律。从山东省的实际情况来看,东部沿海地区凭借其区位优势和国家及省内政策的支持,经济获得了持续的高速发展,但伴随而来的是省内东西地带间、地区间、城乡之间出现了明显的差距,并且这些差距还有逐步扩大的趋势,影响了山东省整体经济水平的提高和宏观经济目标的实现。本文首先运用反映生产力发展水平、资本积累水平、人民生活质量、文卫科教水平和基础设施五大方面的23个指标分析了2007年山东省的区域经济差异状况,并借助聚类分析将山东省17个地级市划分为四大梯队,第一梯队为济南市和青岛市,第二梯队为烟台市、潍坊市、淄博市、临沂市、泰安市、济宁市、威海市和日照市,第三梯队为德州市、东营市、莱芜市、滨州市和枣庄市,第四梯队为聊城市和菏泽市,并在此基础上分析了各类区域的特征。其次,本文选择全社会固定资产投资、财政收支、银行资本、外商直接投资和资本市场直接融资五个指标来反映山东省的资本流动状况。搜集了17个地级市1994-2008年连续15年的数据,借助图表详细地分析了各梯队资本流动的变化趋势及原因。从该部分分析的结果看,处于较高梯队区域的资本流动明显活跃于较低梯队的区域。再次,基于经济计量模型,对山东省各发展梯队的资本流动对区域经济发展差异的影响进行实证检验和分析。其中所运用到的实证分析模型是一元线性回归,所用到的计量分析方法包括单位根检验和协整检验,分别以反映资本流动的五个指标为自变量,以反映区域经济增长的指标GDP为因变量分梯队建立多个一元线性回归模型,分析资本流动对不同梯队经济增长的贡献度并得出结论:就资本流动而言,各梯队促进经济增长的主要因素是有差异的,第一梯队为外商直接投资,第二梯队为金融机构各项贷款,第三梯队为财政转移支付和金融机构各项贷款,第四梯队为金融机构存贷款。相对而言,金融机构各项贷款对地区生产总值的正效应要大一些,尤其是在三、四梯队,表现得更为明显。另外,资本流动各项目对于各梯队国内生产总值的影响也是不同的,总的来说,外商直接投资对GDP的正效应最小,其次是全社会固定资产投资,而金融机构存贷款对GDP的正效应最大。最后,针对山东省的现实情况,提出了引导资本流动促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议,包括大力培育资本市场,完善银行融资机制,提高信贷资金运行质量,改善投资环境,合理控制外资利用规模,提高外资利用水平,将青岛建设成为区域性金融中心;调整区域税收政策,消除第三、四梯队经济发展不利因素的影响,规范转移支付制度,优化山东省财政支出结构,实施旨在加强第三、四梯队地区自身“造血”功能的财政投资政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional economic difference is an objective truth, but also the objective laws of economic development. From the actual situation in Shandong Province, the eastern areas had sustained high-speed development by virtue of its geographical advantage and policies.But there are clear gaps between eastern and western areas, or between regions, or between urban and rural areas.The expansion of these gaps will impact the improvement of overall economic of Shandong Province.To begin with, author exerts five aspects including twenty-three indexes which relate to productivity level of development, the level of capital accumulation, the people’s quality of life, the level of science and technology and infrastructure,and analyze regional economic difference of Shandong province in 2007. According to the cluster analysis,author divides seventeen cities into four kinds:the first kind includes jinan and qingdao;the second kind includes Yantai, Weifang, Zibo, Linyi, Tai’an , Jining, Weihai and Rizhao;the third kind includes Dezhou, Dongying, Laiwu, Binzhou, and Zaozhuang;the last kind includes Liaocheng and Heze. Furthermore, author analyses four region’s characters based on above sort.Secondly, this paper select five indicators to reflect the capital flows of Shandong Province. Through collecting data from 1994 to 2008 of seventeen cities, author makes a detailed analysis of the changes in capital flows by charts ,and analyze the reasons for the trend. From the results of the analysis, the capital flows significantly more active in the higher gradient region.Thirdly, based on the econometric model, author makes empirical testing and analysis of impact of capital flow on regional economic difference in Shandong Province. The model of empirical analysis is a linear regression, and quantitative analysis methods used are unit root test and cointegration test: variables are the five indicators of capital flow, dependent variable is GDP.Through setting up more than one linear regression models in every gradient, the author concluds: (1)In terms of capital flow, the main factors which improve the economic growth in every gradient are different: the first area is foreign direct investment, the second area is the loans of financial institutions, the third area is the financial transfer payment and loans of financial institutions, the fourth area is loans of financial institutions. Relatively speaking, the loans of financial institutions have much positive effect on GDP, especially in the second and four gradient.(2) Each item of Capital flow has different impact on GDP in every gradient:on the whole, the foreign direct investment has the smallest positive effect, followed by fixed asset investment, and loans of financial institutions has the largest positive effect on GDP.Finally, in view of the reality of the situation in Shandong Province, the author puts forward policy and recommendations to guide capital flow to promote the coordinated development of regional economic. Includes:(1) Foster capital market, improve bank financing mechanism,improve the quality of credit, improve the investment environment, control scale of foreign capital reasonably, improve utilization level of foreign capital, and make the construction of Qingdao as a regional financial center.(2) Adjust the regional taxation policy to eliminate negative impact on economic development of the unfavorable factors in the third and fourth gradient, regulate the system of transfer payments, optimize the structure of financial expenditure in Shandong Province, and implemente financial investment policy aimed at strengthening their own Fund-raising function in the third and fourth gradient.更多还原