四川省居民收入与消费关系研究

【作者】 胡鹏；

【导师】 陈绍刚；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 运筹学与控制论， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 消费占国民收入的三分之二,是拉动经济增长的主要因素。自凯恩斯建立绝对收入假说以来,对于消费问题的研究可谓是百家争鸣,百家齐放。各个时期的经济学家从不同的角度针对不同的重点对消费进行了深入的研究,创立了若干的学说,对消费理论的完善做出了不同的贡献,并为实际工作提供了理论指导。本文以国内外学者对收入与消费关系模型为研究背景,采用四川省1978-2007年的数据,利用ADF单位根检验、Engle-Granger协整检验、误差修正模型等计量经济理论,对四川省城乡居民收入和消费之间的关系进行了协整分析,建立了误差修正模型,并分析了它们之间的差异。进一步,将弗里德曼的持久收入假说引入误差修正模型中,对居民持久收入与消费之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,不管是从实际收入还是从持久收入的角度,城乡居民收入与消费之间存在长期均衡、短期动态的协整关系,居民的消费与收入的关系密切,为刺激居民消费,应当努力促使居民的收入增长。然而,农村居民在进行消费时更为保守,其短期动态模型的调整力度也低于城镇居民,表明了现阶段农村居民对消费呈谨慎态度,政府在制定政策时应当在促进全省居民收入增长的基础上,加大农村居民社会保障等制度的建设,切实解决农民的生活问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption accounts for two-thirds of national income, hence it is the main factor to promote economic growth. Since the Keynesian absolute income hypothesis has been set up for the study of consumer issues, in different periods ,so many economists who come from different angles for different focus on the consumer have carried out an in-depth research, a number of theories on consumption theory have been created to help to perfect the contribution and provides practical guidance to theoretical work. In this paper, based on the relationship between income and consumption model studied by domestic and foreign scholars, using data from 1978 to 2007 of Sichuan province, the author makes use of ADF unit root test, Engle-Granger co integration test, error correction model to give a research on the relationship between income and consumption of the people who live in urban and rural areas of Sichuan by using co integration analysis, theorize error correction model, and analyze the differences between them. Further, this paper conducts an empirical research on the relationship between residents’stable income and consumption by introducing Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis to the error correction model. The results show that, regardless of actual income or constant income, there exist the long-run equilibrium, short-term dynamics of co integration relations between urban-rural income and consumption. People’s consumption and income are always closely related. In order to stimulate people’s consumption, efforts should be given to promote income growth. Still, rural residents are more conservative when consuming, and its short-term dynamic model of adjustment is also lower than that of urban residents, demonstrating that rural residents at this stage are cautious of the consumption. Consequently, in addition to promoting the province’s overall income growth, the Government in the formulation of policies should intensify the construction of social security system of rural areas and, effectively resolve the issues of peasants’life.更多还原