【作者】 李静；

【导师】 徐程扬； 贾宝全；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林培育， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文以武汉市为例,应用景观格局分析软件、土地利用单一和综合模型及马尔科夫转移矩阵,系统分析了1985-2000年该地区土地利用/土地覆盖格局变化、土地利用类型面积及转移概率,进一步探讨了影响像土地利用变化的因素。并对武汉城市森林发展潜力进行。本论文主要结论如下:(1)土地利用/土地覆盖变化度:1985-2000年问该区土地利用类型景观格局变化不大,表明武汉市的城市发展及规划还是比较合理。虽然景观格局指数变化不大,但土地利用类型面积变化较大,建设用地面积快速增加而未利用土地迅速减少。耕地、林地和草地的面积变化不大。在整体景观比重方面从1995年到2000年,虽然水田和旱地景观在整体上仍占优势,但所占比都有不同程度下降;水域和建设用地所占景观百分比都呈上升趋势,其他的林地和草地的比重有所下降。(2)土地利用/土地覆盖变化转移矩阵及动态度:1985-2000年问武汉市整体土地利用类型中林地面积变化小大,草地面积减少主要是流向林地,水域面积逐年增加,主要由建设用地转入。建设用地变化最显著,虽然有部分面积转为水田和旱地,但是城市绿地的建设使建设用地面积增加显著;未利用土地和耕地面积急剧减少主要是城市建设规模需求的扩大。(3)土地利用/土地覆盖变化的影响因素:一方面武汉市地势低平,空间坦荡,是水域扩张的集中区域。该区降水量平均在1000mm以上,地表径流量大。每年的7-8月份水位升高,使得溃堤、决口现象频繁发生,对人们的生产生活安全构成很大的威胁。该区地势低平又被河湖所包围,使得地下水位升高,土壤盐渍的现象严重。因此,自然条件对LUCC有一定程度的影响;另一方面,该区经济体制的转变使工业化和城镇化进程加快,生活方式和价值观念的转变导致土地利用类型发生变化。(4)城市森林发展潜力:“8+1”城市圈计划的实施、两型社会的建设、深厚的文化内涵和旅游产业的蓬勃发展使得武汉城市森林发展的综合潜力无限;从生态用地角度入于,考虑武汉市林业生态建设的潜力,其可用土地规模在51028.75-113537.77hm~z之间,如能全部用于林业建设,则仅此全市的林木绿化率就可以增加6.01-13.37个百分点。其中未利用土地如全部用于林业建设可以增加森林覆盖率4.1个百分点,其他的水岸、道路、坡耕地等的绿化潜力在1.91-9.27个百分点之间。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Wuhan city for example,The article analyzes patterns of land use and land cover change, transition matrix and rate of land use types from 1985 to 2000,by applying software of landscape pattern analysis,single and integrated land use model and the Markov transition matrix.Further more, the impact of land-use change factors and developmental potential of urban forest were discussed in the paper.The results showed that:(1) Land use and land change degree:From 1985 to 2000,landscape patterns have been changed very little shows that development and planning of Wuhan city are reasonable.But different types of land areas change larger.The areas of land for construction increase rapidly,land for unused is on the other way.Cultivated land and woodland and grassland change very little.From the proportion of overall landscape,paddy field and dry land exceeded in total landscape,but less than proportion, percentage of water area and land for construction is upwards,woodland and grassland is down trend.(2) The transition matrix and rate of dynamic for land use and land cover change:the areas of woodland have been changed very little,areas of grassland reduced because of transfer to woodland.Due to carry over land for construction,water area has increased year by year. Although,land for unused transfers to land for construction.So the scale of urban construction is still a significant rising trend.(3) The factors of land use and land cover change:Wuhan City,on the one hand,the low-lying,space magnanimous,is focused on expansion of regional waters.The mean rainfall is more than 1000millimetre which results to large surface runoff.It’s a great threat to people’s production and living security.Therefore natural conditions have an effect on land use and land cover change to some extent.On the other hand,economic system makes process of industrialization and urbanization more rapidly,lifestyle changes and values lead to changes in land-use types.(4) Developmental potential of urban forest in Wuhan city:The article analyzed the potential of urban forest in two respects,Comprehensive potential will be enormous because of policies,economy and culture.By means of ecological land,the results shows the area of available land is between 51028.75 to 113537.77 hectare in future,which will make the landscaping ratio increase about 6.01 to 13.37percentage.One of them is land for unused,which will increase the forest coverage rate 4.1 percentage points.waterfront,roads,farmland and other green potential between 1.91-9.27 percentage points.更多还原