【作者】 李佳晋；

【导师】 马忠；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 会计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 针对我国的不分配以及连续多年不分配现象,本文选取了深、沪两地2005-2007年除金融、保险行业外所有的上市公司的有关资料为样本,从盈余持续性角度研究了盈余质量与现金股利政策、当期会计盈余与现金股利政策的相关关系。已有研究中较多侧重于研究现金股利政策与公司治理变量之间的关系,而较少有文章针对上市公司的盈余质量进行度量并从盈余持续性角度研究盈余质量对公司现金股利政策的影响,且目前较少见到同时使用盈余自回归模型与多元逻辑回归模型对现金股利政策的影响因素进行全面的分析研究。研究中发现,发放现金股利的上市公司具有较好的盈余质量,且每股现金股利高的上市公司其现金股利大小与盈余质量呈现较为显著的正相关关系;当期会计盈余、股权集中度与现金股利政策呈显著的正相关关系,而公司成长性也与现金股利政策呈同方向的变化,本文的实证分析结果更支持“掏空”理论。本文的创新之处在于专门针对不进行现金分红的上市公司为样本测度其盈余质量,且从盈余持续性的角度研究了盈余质量与现金股利政策的相关关系,并补充研究了股权集中度和当期会计盈余指标对现金股利政策的影响。在研究方法上,本文不仅测度了总盈余与现金股利政策的关系,还进一步将总盈余分解为营业利润与非营业利润,对营业利润进一步分解为总应计项目与净经营现金流量,在股权集中度方面本文采用第一大股东持股比例、前三大股东持股比例与前五大股东持股比例进行测度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cash dividends distribution has not been very common in Chinese listed companies. This paper filter the data of 2005-2007’s stock market except for the Insurance and finance industry, research the relation of earnings quality and cash dividends policy from the earnings continuity perspective as well as the relation of the earnings quality and ownership structure in Chinese listed companies. There are few studies about this topic in financial management. Some front research mainly attention the relation between the dividend policy and corporate governance, earnings quality itself and various methods of earnings quality appraisal system other than measuring the relation of earnings quality and cash dividends policy, also there are few studies to research the influencing factors with the autoregressive process and binary logistic regression model at the same time. After the empirical analysis, the paper found out there were prominent relationship between earnings quality and cash dividends policy. Cash dividend and earnings quality has a significant positive correlation in a cash dividend sample. Concentration of equity and cash dividend policy was a significant positive correlation and also the company’s growth and cash dividend policy changes in the same direction. So the conclusions of this paper support the "tunneling" theory.There are two innovations in this article: Firstly, the most core content in this article is that I analyzed the earnings quality towards especial sample companies and the influence of earnings quality to the cash dividends policy in a new angle. Secondly, I decomposed of the total surplus for the operating profit and non-operating profit for better research and at the same time in analyzing the stockholder’s concentration degree I used the first shareholder holdings, the top three shareholder holdings and the top five shareholder holdings to do this job.更多还原