基于美国佛罗里达州的经济基础模型研究

【作者】 李凡；

【导师】 苏启林；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 经济基础模型是衡量区域外部需求对区域经济发展水平影响的重要模型。随着经济学界对产业特性的日趋重视,不同区域的不同产业结构,主导产业选择,主导产业的发展程度有效的解释了区域外部需求对区域经济发展水平不同影响,因而产业逐渐被引入传统模型的分析框架。随着产业细分的引入,统计学数据的完善和计量经济学技术的发展,现代模型将不同产业的产业特性引入回归模型的解释变量,从而模型由刻画区域内整体经济基础乘数细化为刻画区域内不同产业的经济基础乘数,为比较区域内部不同产业对整体经济发展的影响提供了定量分析的理论依据。本文首先概述了经济基础理论的由来和模型的发展历史,然后归纳了四种不同的估计经济基础乘数的实证方法,最后结合两种常用的估计方法,对美国佛罗里达州做实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic base model is one of most important model for measuring the different influence of external demand to regional economic development.As more and more emphasis of economists on the research of industrial characteristics,industrial structure,main industries, development level of main industries offer satisfied explanation to dissimilar impact of external demand to regional economic development,thus traditional economic base model specifies industries(sectors) gradually.When industry categories are included,statistic data becomes complete and econometric technique improves,model economic base model consider industry characteristic as explanatory variables,as a result,model can express the industry-specified economic base multipliers instead of traditionally economic base multipliers.Therefore,the modern model offers the theoretical foundation for comparing influence of relative industry to the same regional economics.The paper introduce the source of economic base theory and development of economic base model at first,then summarize four common different strategies for estimating economic base multipliers,at last,focus on empirical research in Florida depending on two of the above methods.更多还原