【作者】 宋伟；

【导师】 李翔； 刘北营；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 项目管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 安全管理的实质是风险管理,建立安全风险管理体系是国家电网公司安全生产“三个管理体系”建设的重点,对于形成安全生产预防机制,促进企业平安和谐,具有重要的作用和意义。本文深入研究风险管理理论,阐述了建设工程项目风险管理的相关概念,介绍了多种风险识别的方法,分析了各自的特点、性质及应用范围;并重点介绍了R=P×C风险定级评价法、模糊风险综合评价、外推法以及蒙特卡罗模拟法四种风险评价方法。以乐山输变电工程施工风险为研究对象,运用层次分析法识别出乐山输变电工程的各种施工风险,并找出主要风险因素。运用模糊灰色综合评价法,确定乐山输变电工程的整体施工风险水平;运用R=P×C定级法确定施工风险中各风险因素的风险等级。最后针对不同等级的不同风险因素,给出了具体的应对策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk management is the essence of safety management,and establishing a security-risk management system is the focus of building "the three management systems" of safe production for State Grid Corporation,which plays an important role in forming prevention mechanism of safe production and promoting the safety and harmony for enterprises.This dissertation firstly deeply studies the theory of risk management.It elaborates the concepts of risk management of construction projects,and introduces some methods of identifying risk with analyzing their properties,nature and scope of application.Also, it chooses to introduce four methods of evaluating risk:R = P×C risk rating evaluation method,fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation method,extrapolation and Monte Carlo simulation method.Then the construction risk of Le Shan power transmission & transformation project is studied in this paper with using AHP method to identify its construction risks and major construction risk factors.After applying fuzzy-grey comprehensive risk evaluation method to evaluate its whole construction risk level,it uses R = P×C risk rating evaluation method to analyze each risk level of each risk factor.Finally,it proposes specific strategies for dealing with different risk factors of different risk levels.更多还原