【作者】 徐芬明；

【导师】 朱玉碧； 王炯；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 目前我国正处在于现代化进程飞速发展阶段,伴随城市的扩张、农村人口的转移和城镇居民的不断增加,城市住宅的供需矛盾日益突出。城市住房问题逐渐成为社会各界关注的焦点,而住房问题中的价格问题又是重中之重,在这种形势下,研究房地产价格变动的驱动因子,寻找房地产价格变化的内在机制具有重要意义。重庆市作为一个年轻的直辖市,又是被中央批准的统筹城乡综合配套改革发展试验区,现正处于工业化和城市化进程飞速发展的阶段,有大量的农村人口向城镇转移,加大了城镇住宅的供需矛盾,以致城市住宅价格增长较快,在这样的背景下研究重庆市城镇住宅价格变化的影响因素及其内在驱动机制就更为必要。纵观目前国内外关于房地产价格方面的研究成果,一方面分析中往往只针对某一单独因素对房地产价格的影响进行分析,而缺少采用系统的方法考虑不同因素对房地产价格的综合影响:另一方面,当前研究成果大多停留在对定性的分析上,而定量的研究相对缺乏;再者,国内外住宅价格影响因素的研究主要集中于对热点、关键因素的研究,而随着我国经济的快速发展和产业结构的不断优化,影响房地产价格的因素也回日益错综复杂,所有这些都要求研究者对住宅价格影响因素有更深刻地认识。本研究在广泛汲取国内外专家学者对房地价格变化影响因素研究成果的基础上,以区位理论、地租地价理论、供需理论等基础理论为指导,以定性与定量分析为基础,先后对影响重庆市住宅价格变化的土地出让价格、住宅造价、金融机构本外币贷款余额、城市居民家庭可支配收入、总人口、城镇化率等六个因子进行定性阐述,关联度分析、定量的模型的建立,并在此基础上分析了它们对住宅价格的驱动作用,这对探索重庆市商品房(住宅)价格变化及其驱动因素的作用机制,找出房地产发展的过程中决定其价格的主要因素,并进一步了解这些因素在多大程度上影响房地产价格具有一定理论和实际意义,从而为因地制宜地制定重庆市住宅的有关政策提供一定参考。纵观全文,整个研究的内容可以分为以下几个方面。文献综述部分,主要概括了国有关内外房地产价格变化问题的研究进展和成果,为研究的展开提供背景资料;第1章是绪论,介绍了本研究选题背景及其意义、研究内容、目的和技术路线以及资料来源等,为研究提供方向。第2章主要介绍研究相关概念的界定和理论依据,为研究的的进行提供理论支持;第3章从重庆市简况、重庆市近年房地产供需和开发情况、重庆市商品房(住宅)变化情况等方面概要的介绍了研究区的基本状况;第4章对影响重庆市住宅价格变化的因素从供给和需求两个视角进行定性分析。指出随着重庆市社会经济的快速发展和城市化进程的加速,一方面是由总人口和居民收入不断增加等因素导致的市场需求的加大,而另一方面则是市场供给调整的相对滞后性等因素而导致的供给相对不足,加剧了市场供需矛盾,引起了住宅价格的上升;第5章对影响重庆市住宅价格变化的因素进行定量分析。通过对影响重庆市住宅价格变化的六个因子先后进行关联度分析、定量模型的构建,分别阐述了它们对重庆市住宅价格影响的大小。第6章对驱动重庆市住宅变化的因素的作用机制进行了简单阐述。第7章得出了研究结论并据此提出相应的政策建议。第8章指出了本研究的局限性和需要进一步研究的问题。本研究中取得的主要成果如下:(1)分析了重庆市近年来房地产供需及住宅价格变化情况,并据此引出了研究的主要问题。(2)从定性和定量两方面通过关联度分析和定量统计模型的建立等方法分析了影响重庆市住宅价格变化的六个因素及其各自作用的大小。(3)根据各因素对重庆市住宅价格驱动作用的大小分析了它们对重庆市住宅价格的驱动机制。(4)有针对性地提出了制定重庆市住宅价格宏观调控的有关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,China is in the process of modernizationthe and rapid development stage,with the city’s expansion,the transfer of the rural population and increasing urban residents,urban housing supply and demand have become increasingly conspicuous.The issue of urban housing has gradually become the focus of the community,and the price of housing is the most important issue, under these circumstances,research real estate prices of the driving forces of change,looking for changes in real estate prices has an important internal mechanism significance.Chongqing municipalities,as a young,but also approved by the central co-ordinating urban and rural reform and development of comprehensive experimental zone,is now in the process of industrialization and urbanization,the rapid development stage,a large number of the transfer of the rural population to urban areas,increased urban housing supply and demand,resulting in rapid growth of urban housing prices in the context of this study in Chongqing urban housing prices and the impact of changes in the factors driving mechanism is even more necessary.Looking at the current real estate prices at home and abroad on research results,on the one hand, the analysis is often only a single real estate prices on the impact analysis,and the lack of systematic approach to the use of different factors to consider the combined effects of real estate prices;On the other hand,most current research to stay on the qualitative analysis,and the relative lack of quantitative research;Moreover,the impact of domestic and international factors,housing prices study focused on the hot key factor in the study,and as China’s rapid economic development and the continuous optimization of industrial structure,the factors that affect real estate prices are back to the increasingly complex,all of which require the impact of research on factors that housing prices have a more profound understanding.In this study,learn in a wide range of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the premises of the impact of price changes in the factors of research results based on location theory,land rent theory,basic theory of supply and demand theory as a guide to qualitative and quantitative analysis,one after another on the impact of Chongqing Urban housing price changes in land prices,housing costs,financial institutions and foreign currency loans,the disposable income of urban households,the total population,urbanization and other factors as set out six,linkage analysis,quantitative model,on the basis of an analysis of their role in driving housing prices,which in Chongqing to explore real estate(residential) price change and its mechanism of drivers to find out the real estate development process to determine their prices a major factor,and a better understanding of the extent to which these factors affect the price of real estate has a certain theoretical and practical significance,according to local conditions so as to residential development of Chongqing Municipality to provide a reference to the relevant policies.Throughout the text,the entire study can be divided into the following aspects. Literature Review of the State summarized the major real estate price changes on the inside and outside the research progress and results of research carried out to provide background information;Chapter 1 is to introduce the subjects of this study the background and its significance to study the content,objectives and technology roadmap,as well as sources of information such as directions for research.Chapter 2 introduces the definition of the concept of research and theoretical basis for the study be conducted to provide theoretical support;Chapter 3 profiles from Chongqing Municipality,Chongqing Municipality in recent years and the development of real estate supply and demand,Chongqing City real estate(residential) areas such as a summary of the changes introduced in the basic situation of the study area;Chapter 4 of the impact of changes in housing prices in Chongqing factor of two from the perspective of supply and demand for qualitative analysis.Chongqing that with the rapid socio-economic development and accelerate the urbanization process,on the one hand,the total population and by increasing people’s income and other factors led to the increased market demand, while the other is the adjustment of market supply is lagging behind a result of factors such as the relative shortage of supply,exacerbated by the market imbalance between supply and demand has caused the rise in housing prices;Chapter 5 of the impact of changes in housing prices in Chongqing quantitative analysis of the factors.Chongqing affected by changes in housing prices has carried out six factor correlation analysis,quantitative model,respectively,on their impact on housing prices in Chongqing size.Chapter 6 of the driver change Chongqing residential factors on a simple mechanism.Chapter 7 of the study to draw conclusions based on the corresponding policy recommendations.Chapter 8 points out the limitations of this study and needs further research. In this study,the main results obtained are as follows: (1) an analysis of supply and demand in Chongqing and residential real estate in recent years,price changes,and this study led to a major problem.(2) from both qualitative and quantitative analysis through the associated statistical models and quantitative methods such as the establishment of an analysis of the impact of changes in housing prices in Chongqing City,the six factors and the size of the respective roles.(3) According to the Chongqing Municipality on the role of housing price-driven analysis of the size of their domestic prices in Chongqing drive mechanism.(4) put forward the development of housing prices in Chongqing on the macro-control policy recommendations.更多还原