【作者】 王鹏；

【导师】 罗林开；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 模式识别与智能系统， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 如今,“城市适度人口容量应该是多少”这个问题越来越成为城市发展的核心问题。从表面上看,他们关心的是人口的容量或规模问题,从深层次上看,他们关心的是人口对当地的经济、交通,治安,教育,医疗等现实问题的影响。而进一步来说,在确定城市适度人口容量之后,更严峻的问题在于如何将其规划到各分区去,这个问题的解决与否将直接关系到城市人口发展目标能否最终实现。本文以深圳市及其分区为例,把人口与经济理论、土地资源理论、系统工程、仿真技术、数理经济学以及空间数据挖掘等多学科的方法综合于一体,同时应用逆系统技术、P-S算法、精算技术、空间关联统计分析方法等应用于人口、社会、经济、资源与环境的复杂系统的研究过程之中,并从人口容量、人口分布与再分布等多个视角对深圳市及各分区的人口演进及其特征进行研究。本论文的创新之处包括:(1)基于多目标决策分析的视角,应用成熟先进的多学科的理论方法技术对深圳市分区域人口发展问题和主要特征进行了深入的刨析、揭示,提出了深圳市“6+1”区(包括光明区)在全市最优前提下的各区人口分布方案,创新性的概括和总结出了未来分区调控应当采取的“分区域非均衡调控”的模式,并给出具体实施方案;(2)针对未来城市深圳人口控制的严峻形势及各区入口特征、社会和经济发展特征的差异性,创新性的制定了具有科学性、可操作性、可实施性的目标方案集;(3)针对不同来源的人口统计口径数据,前瞻性的提出了以深圳实际管理人口数为统计口径作为时序调控目标的基准值,既克服了目前因不同人口口径而出现的研究难点,也为今后我国户籍调整、区域功能区调整和优化政策的实施,构建了与人口管理、服务及其产业化升级、优化等政策发展与时俱进的数量基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the problem that what the optimum population of a city should be has became the core problem of city development. Seemingly, people focus on the problem of population capability or scale, however, they actually concentrate on the influences on practical problems such as local economy, transportation, social security, education, medical care, etc. caused by population, from the deep perspective. Further speaking, the more serious problem is that how to distribute the optimum population into the each district after the optimum population is determined, which plays a decisive role in final realization of the city population development.Taking Shenzhen and its districts for example, this paper is dedicated to analyze the population evolution and characteristics in Shenzhen and its districts from many perspectives such as population capability, population distribution and re-distribution, using the comprehensive method which is composed of many subjects such as population and economy theory, land resources theory, project system engineering, simulation technology, mathematical economics, spatial data mining and so on, and applying many analysis methods such as inverted system technology, P-S algorithms, actuarial technology, spatial statistical analysis, etc. into the analysis in complicated system of population, society, resource and environment.The innovative points of this paper include:1. On the basis of multi-objective decision making analysis, this paper deeply analyzed and revealed the population development problem and the major characteristics in Shenzhen and its districts, applying the advanced theory methods in many subjects. This paper also advanced the "six plus one" districts (including Guangming district) population distribution plan which was the most optimum plan in Shenzhen, and creatively concluded that the model of "regional unbalanced regulation" should be applied in future district regulation, and the specific implementation plan was also recommended in this paper. 2. Focusing on the harsh situation in future city population control in Shenzhen and the distinction in characteristics of population in each district and social and economic development, this paper creatively formulated the scientific, operational and feasible objective plans collection.3. Focusing on the statistical data of population from different sources, this paper prospectively stated that the statistical scope of actual management population in Shenzhen should be served as the reference value of regulation objective, which not only overcame the present research difficulties due to the different population scope, but constructed the quantitative foundation keeping pace of policies development of population management, services, industrialization update and optimization for the implementation of future household registration adjustment, regional functioning adjustment and optimized policies in our country.更多还原