【作者】 黎伟；

【导师】 陈义华；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 运筹学与控制论， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 城市轨道交通是一种快捷安全高效的客运交通方式,但由于轨道交通建设具有耗资巨大、规划年限长、涉及面广、综合性强的特点,故必须进行合理的规划和客观科学的客流预测工作,才能发挥出应有的作用。轨道交通客流预测通过预测线路断面流量、换乘流量、车站出入口流量为规划线网方案的评价、轨道建设提供重要的量化指标,是近年发展起来的一门交通预测学,它对于轨道交通项目的科学决策具有重要的意义。本文主要分为以下四个部分:第一章叙述了城市轨道交通的特点、国内外轨道交通发展现状以及轨道交通客流预测的重要性。第二章轨道交通客流预测分类和轨道交通预测中的不确定性和复杂性,并且介绍了土地利用法和传统四阶段法。最后提出了传统四阶段法的不足。第三章针对传统四阶段法的不足进行了改进。在交通生成吸引模型中按出行目的和小区区位分别建模;在交通分布模型中提出了小区内和小区间的交通分布模型;在交通方式划分模型的研究中进行了广泛的讨论,提出了竞争策略的交通方式划分模型和“城市交通方式划分与交通分配的联合模型”,在交通分配过程中引入了交通规划专业软件TransCAD进行分配,提高了预测效率。第四章利用重庆市现有的土地资料、规划用地资料、城市交通系统数据等资料和数据,以重庆轨道交通一号线为实例对上述相关研究及模型进行了具体分析与检算。更多还原

【Abstract】 Metropolitan railway traffic is a pattern of passenger transport which possesses shortcut, safe and efficient specialty. The best approach is actively developing metropolitan railway traffic system. At the same time, metropolitan railway traffic construction possesses some characteristics: highly cost, years of programming, strong comprehensibility, numerous fields. So reasonable programming and scientific forecast about passenger flow can ensure railway traffic playing the important role.The predicting of urban rail transportation flow of passengers through predicting the flow of circuit section, the flow of transfer, flow of entrances and exits of station。It offers the important quantization index for the appraisal, track of the planning network scheme and is a new study developed in recent years. science decision to the rail transportation project has important meanings.This paper is divided into four parts:The first chapter describes the characteristics of urban rail transport, development of domestic and international rail traffic and rail traffic flow forecasts importance.Chapter II railway traffic flow forecast track of traffic classification and prediction of uncertainty and complexity, and introduction land use method and traditional four-stage method. Finally, the traditional method of less than four phases.The third chapter has made the improvement in view of the traditional four-stage method.In the model to attract traffic generated by travel purposes and the residential area were modeling;The traffic distribution model in the sub-region and the interval were modeling the traffic distribution model.In the way of traffic model in the study had extensive discussions, proposed a competition strategy of mode of transportation model and the "means of urban transportation and distribution of the traffic model";Finally the introduction of a transport planning software TransCAD distribution, improve the efficiency of the forecast. Chapter IV of the Chongqing Municipal existing land, land planning, urban transportation systems and data, information and data to Chongqing Rail Transit Line 1 as an example of the above-related research and model specific analysis and calculation.更多还原