【作者】 陈雷；

【导师】 周敬宣；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 城市生态可持续发展是保证城市生态环境不被破坏,维持城市持续、健康、有序发展的根本,而协调发展则是生态可持续发展中的重中之重,城市的和谐发展与协调发展之间有很大的关联,协调发展是建立和谐社会的基础和必要条件。本文综合城市学、生态学、环境学、系统学等学科,建立城市生态系统协调发展评价及预测模型,以武汉市为实例进行研究。本文在简述城市系统学理论、城市生态学理论和冲突协同性理论的基础上,综述了当前城市生态系统评价研究的现状,得到城市生态系统协调发展评价的内涵,即应用复合生态系统的观点,以及生态学、环境学、系统学等学科的理论和技术方法,对城市生态系统的组成、结构、生态功能、生态环境的稳定性与协调性、系统发展的演化趋势等进行综合评价分析。本文概述了武汉市经济、社会、生态环境发展现状,选取了一套表征武汉市生态系统协调发展状况的指标体系。该体系充分考虑了城市生态系统耗散结构的特征,由熵变层、系统层、准则层、指标层构成,具有递阶层次结构,能综合反映武汉市协调发展状态。指标是按隶属关系、层次关系原则组成的有序集合,其中经济子系统含7个指标因子,社会子系统含9个指标因子,资源子系统含5个指标因子,环境子系统含11个指标因子,共32个指标因子。本文基于复合生态系统、信息熵、协调发展、支持向量机等理论的分析,建立了针对武汉市的城市生态系统协调发展评价模型,并对武汉市1988——2004年的协调发展情况进行评价。结果表明:武汉市城市生态系统总熵变是逐年下降的,综合发展度和协调发展度呈现上升趋势,武汉市整体朝着健康、有序的方向发展,且从1997年开始一直保持基本协调发展状态。但是由于对生态环境的重视不够,指数值均偏低,直到2004年还只是初级协调发展水平,综合发展度也不高。通过计算规划值的综合发展度与协调发展度可以看出,总体规划是符合武汉市经济、社会、资源和环境协调发展方向的,并且确定了在2010年达到良好协调、2020年达到优质协调的发展目标。本文以支持向量机为主要工具,充分发挥其解决复杂系统、处理小样本、黑箱模型、泛化能力强等优势建立了城市协调发展预测模型。根据综合发展度与协调发展度的规划值与预测值对比分析可以看出:若按现有发展路线,武汉市在2020年还不能达到优质协调发展,因此,武汉市应适时调整发展路径,充分考虑资源环境对经济社会的影响因素,早日实现社会的健康和谐发展。本文收集了武汉市1989——2004年及总体规划的相关数据,数据量很大,运用MATLAB、SPSS等软件,方便进行数值计算和编程运行。本文最后针对评价、预测结果以及与规划值的对比分析结果,提出了武汉市城市协调发展的建议,即树立城市整体协调发展的观念、加强生态环境管理与城区环境综合整治、健全社会保障体系、大力发展循环经济,希望以此来推进和谐武汉建设,促使武汉成为“中部崛起”的战略支点。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of economy, ecological environment come to have a harm effect on the economic development, which attracts people’s attention. How to coordinate the development between social development, economic development, resource protection and environment protection to reduce the destruction of ecological environment in the economic development has become a subject that is discussed forever.City is a complex ecosystem of economy-society-nature, and the urban environment is a supporting system for the sustainable development of city. City ecological sustainable development (CESD) ensure urban environment not to destroy and it maintain the city sustainer, healthiness and sequence development. Harmonize development is the most important of the CESD. In addition, it has a close relationship between harmoniousness and coordinated index of city. The contradiction between social development, economic development, resource protection and environment protection are outstanding increasingly. The coordinated development of society, economy, resource and environment is not only the core but also the essence of sustainable development.In the angle of systems science, this thesis treats society, economy, resource and environment as an integer, provides a demonstration study on Wuhan city. In the very first place, on the basis of expatiating the importance of indicators system and design principle, a coordinated development indicators system for society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan has been established. The coordinated development indicators system is made up of system layer, rule layer and indicators layer.Based on com-ecosystem, dissipative structure theory, Shannon entropy principle and Support Vector Machine (SVM), with calculating eco-economy entropy , eco-function entropy and urban ecosystem entropy, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolvement’s rule of urban ecosystem. A quantitative model of urban harmony development evaluation has been set up by the indexes of integrated development degree and harmony development degree. Taking Wuhan’s urban ecosystem from 1988 to 2004 as an example, the result indicates: (1) After four-years stagnate period, the harmony development level has changed from serious inconsistent to primary-harmony in Wuhan, and kept middle-harmony in 2004. But the index value is on the low side. (2)By forecasting of SVM, from 2013, it will be holding well-harmony and the index will improve continuously, and it will be close to high-quality-harmony in 2020.In addition, we used Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast the trend of integrated development degree and harmony development degree. As a popular arithmetic for data mining, SVM has drawn much attention on this topic in recent years for its stabile basis in theory and good generalization. SVM is the hot issue accompanying artificial neural network in machine learning. It involves any practical problems such as classification and regression estimation. Based on the programming and forecast able value, it could not attain high-quality-harmony in 2020. Because the programming value is higher than forecasting value, this paper suggests that the government must adjust the development route in the future and attach importance to environment for the healthiness and harmonize development in Wuhan.At the end, on the basis of analyzing the actuality of society, economy, resource and environment in Wuhan and the result of estimating and forecasting model, we put forward countermeasure that consulted evaluated results and forecasted results to guide Wuhan city to construct ecosystem, so as to bring the society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan to the road of coordinated development, and precipitate Wuhan to become the important tactic pivot of China’s midland rising.更多还原