【作者】 吴娜；

【导师】 陈学广； 刘振元；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 系统工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 一旦油库发生事故如不进行有效的应急救援响应,除了造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡外,还会对生态环境产生极大的破坏力,危害社会稳定。在油库安全研究工作中国内外应急救援系统的研究文献大多只关注于油库安全问题某一方面的研究,电子信息技术也未能形成完整的技术体系,在应急救援决策中一直忽略对应急资源需求预测的问题。为了能够更好的利用当前油库中较为成熟的危险评价技术,在发生事故时提高应急救援的有效性和快速性,本文提出了一个油库应急救援系统。该系统针对当前油库事故的特点,与危险评估、事故后果分析建立接口,集应急救援资源预测和应急资源调度于一体。在应急救援决策子系统中具有应急资源预测模块和应急调度模块。其中应急资源预测模块应用了基于案例推理技术,建立了一个案例库。在遇到突发事故时该模块检索出相似案例,并辅助用户修正该案例。确定应急资源后,应急调度模块根据改进后的Dijkstra算法进行路径优化,并利用成熟的方法分配应急单位。由于集成了安全评估和应急救援两个子系统,该油库应急决策系统较其他系统更为完整。案例推理技术的应用,能够在案例库中检索满足用户需求的预测方案,可为决策提供更理性的决策方案。因此,该系统具有较好的实际应用效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Once an oil company bursts out an accident and the effective action is not taken, the accident will not only cause huge economic loss and casualties, but also bring tremendous devastation in the entironment and social stability.Most references on emergency rescue system for Oil Company just focus on a certain aspect of safety, and the information systems do not form integrated ones. Meanwhile, the anticipation of emergency resource is absent in the research.In order to utilize the well-developed technology in hazardous assessment and improve the efficiency and speediness of the emergency respond, an emergency rescue decision support system for Oil Company is developed. Aiming at accidents of Oil Company, the system integrates the anticipation of emergency resource and emergency logistics with an interface with hazardous assessment and aftereffect analysis.Emergency resource anticipation modular and an emergency logistic modular are involved in this DSS. The emergency resource anticipation modular sets up a case base, and applies the case-based reasoning technology. When the emergency breaks out, the modular could retrieve similar cases, also assist the user to adapt the similar case and determine the requirement of rescue resource. After that, the emergency logistic modular optimizes the path with an improved Dijkstra algorithm, and allocates the emergency enterprises through mature methods.Thanks to the integration of the safe assessment subsystem and emergency rescue subsystem, the emergency rescue decision support system for Oil Company has a better integrality. The application of case-based reasoning meets the user’s requirements in the anticipation of emergency resource, and also makes it possible a more reasonable decision. Conclusively, this system has a positive effect in practice.更多还原