中国贸易条件变动趋势的影响因素研究

【作者】 高宇；

【导师】 罗秀妹；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 全球化浪潮不断高涨的今天,世界各国都在贸易自由化的号召下参与并扩大着国际贸易的进程。从本质上来讲,参与国际贸易的国家都是为了在本国现有资源的基础上,通过贸易获取尽可能多的利益。因此贸易条件作为衡量一国一定时期出口盈利能力的重要指标,是各国在参与国际贸易时重点考虑的问题之一,它的优劣直接涉及到各国切身的贸易利益。改革开放以来,特别是加入WTO之后,中国对外贸易的大幅增长,并且贸易结构逐渐转变为工业制成品为主的结构,快速的增长和贸易结构的转变是否为我们带来了应得的贸易利益呢?本文以衡量贸易利益的标准——贸易条件,作为研究对象,考察分析了我国各项主要的贸易条件自1995年以来的变动趋势,探讨了不同类型的贸易条件变动背后的原因,并且从理论和实证两个角度对贸易条件的影响因素进行了分析,在此基础上展望了我国贸易条件改善的可行途径。本文的主要内容包括:首先,用帕氏价格指数计算了我国价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件、单要素及双要素贸易条件的总体指数和分类商品的具体指数变动情况,并且探讨了各项指数变动背后的原因。发现总体和分类商品的价格贸易条件都呈现恶化的趋势,国内进口需求的扩大和进口品价格的上升主要影响了我国的价格贸易条件下降。与此同时,收入贸易条件和单/双要素贸易条件在出口数量的以及劳动生产率提高的带动下呈现与价格贸易条件反向的变动趋势,这与国内大量的加工贸易,出口支持政策,外商直接投资带来的技术进步等等因素有关。其次,本文结合中国面临的现实内外环境,对影响我国贸易条件的因素进行了具体的理论分析,进一步利用回归模型对中国价格贸易条件的影响因素进行了实证分析,得出它们之间的相关关系,模型显示出进口关税、汇率贬值以及工业制成品的出口对价格贸易条件有正向效应,而进口商品结构和实际GDP指数对其具有负向效应。最后,文章在总体分析的基础上提出了改善我国贸易条件的一些政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rising development of economic globalization, every country is involved in the enlarged process of trade liberalization. Basically, all the participants are hoping to seize more and more benefits from trade by utilizing their domestic resources. As a result, Terms of Trade is a foremost consideration during the whole participation, because it is a main indicator to weight the benefits that cared about by each country.Since the implement of China’s reform and opening up policy, especially after joining the WTO, our foreign trade has witnessed a great development both on value and speed. At the same time, the trade structure is turning to manufacture products. Do we really benefit from the quick development and structure transit? This paper takes Terms of Trade as the object, the one which weigh the benefits of trade directly, analyzed the changing trend of different indices of Terms of Trade and the reason under the superficial. Also illustrated and deeply analyzed the influencing factors of Terms of Trade from theoretical and empirical angles, then discussed further improvement methods.The main parts include: Firstly, this paper calculated the overall and specific products’ Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT), Income Terms of Trade (ITT), Single factor and Double factors Terms of Trade (SFTT/DFTT) using Paasche price index, followed by the discussion of causes behind the trends of Terms of Trade indices. ITT and SFTT/DFTT are not deteriorating as NBTT, due to the impact of large amount export and technique innovation. Secondly, the paper did a thorough and case by case analysis of the influencing factors of Terms of Trade combined the reality of China’s economy. By constructing a regression model of influence factors for NBTT, found that depreciation, import duties and manufacture export contribute positively to improve NBTT while real GDP index and structure of import products influence NBTT negatively. Finally, came up with some reasonable suggestions for further improvement of NBTT.更多还原