【作者】 陈亮；

【导师】 史长莹；

【作者基本信息】 河北工程大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 水库泥沙问题直接影响到水库的使用寿命及综合效益,甚至会危及大坝安全,在多泥沙河流上修建的水库尤为如此。本文以柳河闹德海水库为研究对象,对柳河流域、闹德海水库库区的情况进行了介绍;对闹德海水库建库以来的水文资料及库区测量成果进行了分析、整理;在此基础之上,对闹德海水库多年来库区的库容、纵断面、横断面、泥沙中值粒径、平均含沙量等的变化情况进行了详细的分析,并总结其变化规律;对闹德海水库建库以来的运行方式进行了总结,并对水库的排沙方式做了研究,由实测数据说明,闹德海水库的逆源冲刷、沿程冲刷排沙效果非常好,30多年来一直保持着稳定的兴利库容;利用已有的神经网络理论及成果,用BP和RBF神经网络,考虑入库站、出库站两种不同的影响因子,分别对水库库容及泥沙淤积量进行了预测,结果表明:两种模型的预测精度都满足要求,都可以用来预测未来水库的库容变化及泥沙淤积情况,并用BP网络模型对水库遭遇二十年一遇洪水后的库容情况做了预测。闹德海水库作为典型的建在多泥沙河流上的北方水库,本文分析研究它的泥沙冲淤规律和排沙运行方式的成果以及为此建立的神经网络模型,不但对闹德海本身有着重要意义,而且,对北方水库的泥沙淤积问题都有着重要的理论和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The silt problem of reservoir has a direct impact to the service life and comprehensive benefit of reservoir.It may even endanger the dam safety.This situation is more likely to happen to the reservoir that is built on heavy-silt river.This essay takes Naodehai Reservoir as the research object and introduces the general situation of the reservoir that is located in the Liu River basin.It also analyses and reorganizes the hydrologic data as well as the measuring achievement since the foundation of the reservoir.Based on this point,the article shows the changed condition in storage capacity,vertical section,cross section and the average number of grain diameter and silt content since many years ago.The law of natural change is concluded, too.We make scientific researches on operation mode and sand-clearing mode.The practically measured data indicates that the sand-clearing effect is good both in counter-source washing and rain-dropping washing.The Naodehai Reservoir has been maintaining a stable beneficial storage capacity for 30 years.Taking two influential factors(hydrologic stations on the upper and lower reaches) into consideration,we make a forecast to the storage capacity using the BP and RBF neural network based on neural network theory.The result indicates that the forecast accuracy of the two models meets the demand,and they can both be used to forecast the future condition on storage capacity and silt deposit.Using BP network model,we also make a forecast to the storage capacity condition suppose the heaviest flood coming in every 20 years.Naodehai Reservoir is a good example of being researched that is built on the heavy-silt fiver in northern China.The paper has been written to indicate the research achievement both on the law of alluvial silt as well as sand-clearing mode.The neural network model is also included in the scope of our research.The research has significant meaning not only to Naodehai Reservoir,but has theoretical and practical significance on solving alluvial silt problem in northern reservoirs.更多还原