【作者】 王红斌；

【导师】 朱再清；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近十几年来,世界范围内的肉类生产、消费和贸易增长较快,给中国带来了良好的发展机会。目前,中国肉类生产位居全球首位,但出口表现较差。详细研究中国肉类的出口商品结构和市场结构,对促进肉类出口快速增长、实现从肉类生产大国向贸易大国的转变具有重要的意义。本文综合运用国际贸易学、贸易经济学、产业经济学以及数量经济学等学科原理,采取实证研究与规范研究相结合、定量分析与定性分析相结合等多种方法,对中国肉类出口贸易的商品结构和市场结构进行了系统的分析。论文的研究结果表明,中国肉类出口在入世前后发生了明显的变化。1996～1999年,中国肉类出口额逐年下降,所占世界市场份额也逐年下降;入世以后,中国肉类出口额逐年增加,所占世界市场份额仍然在下降;中国肉类出口商品结构的多样化程度和均匀程度在提高,但分散程度在减弱;中国肉类出口市场结构的分散程度、多样化程度以及均匀程度都在减弱。中国肉类出口商品结构和市场结构呈现出高度集中以及需求适应性差等特点。对中国出口到日本、俄罗斯以及韩国等3个目标市场的肉类商品结构进一步分析发现,中国出口到3国市场上的肉类商品结构也呈现出集中程度过高、需求适应性较差等特点。中国出口的肉类主要是1602(肉、杂碎和血的其他制品);并且中国肉类出口过于依赖日本市场。这样的出口结构不利于肉类出口增长。恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)分解结果表明:入世以前,出口商品结构和市场结构对中国肉类出口增长的影响较小;入世以后,出口商品结构开始促进中国肉类产品出口增长,而出口市场结构则制约着中国肉类产品出口增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the past ten years, the world meat production, consumption and trade developed rapidly, and this offers a good opportunity for China. China’s meat production has always been the first place in the world, but the performance of meat exported by China in global market was bad. It is significance to research the commodity structure and market structure of meat exported by China, and it is significance for China’s meat export growth rapidly and for China’s becoming one of the largest countries of meat trade from one of the largest countries of meat production. With the direction of theories of international trade, trade economics, industry economics and quantitative economics, this paper comprehensively analyses the commodity and market structure of meat exported from China by using various methods such as empirical analysis and normative analysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis.Based on the above analyses, it comes to the conclusion that China’s meat export has a significant change before and after China entered into WTO. The value and the share in global market of meat exported from China decreased during 1996-1999. After entry into WTO, the value of meat exported from China has increased, but China’s share in global meat export market has still decreased. Diversification and evenness of commodity structure of meat exported by China has been improved, but the dispersion has weakened. And the dispersion, diversification, evenness of China’s meat export has weakened. The commodity and market structure of meat exported by China were highly centralized and poorly adapted. Further analysis on the meat export from China to major target markets such as Japan, Russia and South Korea, we find that the commodity structure and market structure of meat export from China to these markets were also highly centralized and poorly adapted. The main meat commodity exported from China is 1602 (Prepared or preserved meat, meat offal and blood, nes), and China’s meat export market relies on Japan highly. This is not beneficial to the growth of China’s meat export.The result of the constant market share model shows that commodity and market structure of meat exported by China had less influence on the growth of meat export before China entered into WTO. Since China entered into WTO, commodity structure of meat exported by China has promoted the meat export of China. But the market structure of meat exported by China has restricted the meat export of China.更多还原