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基于系统动力学的秦皇岛市港城系统发展研究

The Development Research of Qinhuangdao City’s Port and City System Based on System Dynamics

【作者】 华艳

【导师】 袁旭梅;

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 “城以港兴,港为城用”,这是世界范围内港口城市发展演变的普遍规律,即港口与城市两者之间的发展是相辅相成的。因此处理好港口与所在城市的关系日益被人们所重视。本文的研究力在寻求改善秦皇岛市港城系统运行的机会和途径,为港口城市如何实现港城系统协调发展提供理论指导和决策支持。首先,本文综述了国内外学者在港口与城市关系及港口经济发展综合评价两个方面的研究现状。在此基础上,本文丰富和完善了港城系统理论。概述了港城系统的内涵和特征,并具体阐述了港城系统的结构和功能。其次,考察了秦皇岛市港城系统发展现状,并对港城系统内部各个子系统进行了划分,进而选取可操作的性能指标建立了适合当地实际情况的港城系统综合性能指标体系。再次,运用系统动力学的方法,建立了秦皇岛市港城系统动力学仿真模型,并针对此模型采取了三种不同的政策方案进行动态仿真模拟试验。在不同方案的仿真模拟运行下,本文针对秦皇岛市港城系统中主要存在的不同变量进行了数据的综合对比分析,得出了在限定条件下能推动港城系统协调发展的较好方案。最后,根据模型结果和秦皇岛市港城系统实际发展现状,本文主要从水运投资、临港工业、产业结构、中转贸易、港口资源、港口管理信息化和人本管理六个方面入手,提出了能促进秦皇岛市港城系统更加协调发展的对策和建议。

【Abstract】 “City is prospered by port, and port is used by city”, which is a universal law in the development of port cities within the world, that is, both developments of the port and city are complementary. Thus, people pay more attentions to handle the relationship between the port and city. The aim of this paper is to find ways to improve Qinhuangdao City’s Port and City System (PCS). And through this research, this paper can provide theoretical guidance and decision support for the better coordinated development of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS.Firstly, this paper comprehensively elaborated domestic and foreign scholars’research status on two aspects: the one was the relationship between the port and city, the other was the comprehensive evaluation of the port economic development. Based on these research results, this paper enriched and perfected the Theory of PCS. Then this paper outlined the PCS’definition and features, and also specified the PCS’structure and functions.Secondly, this paper inspected the development status of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS. Then it plotted out internal subsystems of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS and chose operable performance indexes to set up an integrated performance indexes system which suited Qinhuangdao City’s PCS.Thirdly, this paper used a method of System Dynamics (SD) to establish a simulation model of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS, then, it took three different policy programs to dynamically simulate this model. Under the conditions of the three different programs’dynamic simulations, this paper comprehensively compared and analyzed different variables which mainly existed in Qinhuangdao City’s PCS. Then this paper got the better programs to promote the coordinated development of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS under the limited conditions.Finally, according to results of the model and the actual development status of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS, this paper found ways and means to promote the better coordinated development of Qinhuangdao City’s PCS, which was mainly from six aspects, that is, watercraft investment、lingang industrial、industrial structure、interim trade、port resources、port management information and people-oriented management.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 燕山大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2009年 04期
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