【作者】 王晓华；

【导师】 田一梅；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 市政工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的迅速发展和人口的急剧膨胀,水资源紧缺现象日趋严重,亟需采取一定的措施加以控制。雨水作为主要的天然来水资源,其利用越来越被人们所重视,但是由于缺少科学的汛期雨水防洪调蓄调度措施,导致大量的弃水现象,而不能实现雨水资源的充分利用,因此建立汛期雨水调度决策支持系统是一项非常有意义的工作。本文以华北地区某工业园区景观河湖为研究对象,根据降雨历史数据并参考该区域水系规划,综合运用多学科理论和方法,成功实现了该区域降雨量预测,建立了雨水蓄泄调度模型,采用情景分析法拟定不同降雨情景从而得到调度方案,最终开发了一套景观河湖雨水优化调度决策支持系统,为管理者提供了有效措施和决策支持。首先,采用灰色马尔可夫预测方法建立降雨预测模型,对研究区域降雨级别进行预测,预测效果满足实用要求。第二,建立以景观河湖调蓄雨水量最大为目标,以规划区域的安全、景观河湖的蓄水能力、河湖外排能力等为约束的雨水优化调度模型,并对其求解,求解出最优调度方案,同时结合汛期分期理论,考虑下垫面材质、降雨强度、降雨历时等多因素对径流系数的影响,使计算结果更符合实际第三,应用情景分析法,拟定不同的降雨情景,并通过雨水优化调度模型提出合理的调度方案,使得景观河湖汛期雨水调度在保证河湖与区域安全的前提下,实现蓄水量最大。最后,在上述研究成果的基础上,以SQL Server 2000为基础开发了雨水优化调度决策支持系统,采用Delphi 7.0和Matlab进行编程设计,最终实现数据的录入、编辑、查询和删除,为雨水调度提供数据支持,同时实现了降雨量的预测和雨水蓄泄调度功能。上述研究成果均建立了软件系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid social economic development and population booming, Shortage Problem of water resources is becoming more serious, so it is necessary to take some concrete measures to control this problem. As major natural water resources, rainwater utilization is emphasized by people. Much rainwater was discarded because of unscientific scheduling methods, then rainwater could not be utilized fully, so it is meaningful to establish Decision Support System of the rainwater optimizing operation.Landscape River of a region in north china was ragarded as the object in this paper. Based on research area planning and past years’rainfall data, the rainfall was predicted successfully, through comprehensive application of multi-disciplinary theories and methods. And based on this rainwater storage and outflow operation model was established. Scheduling methods was generated by adopting the Scenario Analysis and proposing rainfall scenario. At last,Decision Support System of the rainwater optimizing operation for landscape river was developed,which provided effective measures and decision support for management.Firstly, Grey-markov Model for forecasting rainfall was established. The method of forecasting rainfall grade was proposed.The result of forecast was accords with the requirement of practicality.Secondly, the rainfall optimizing operation model was established, in which the aim was that waterstorage of landscape river was maximum. The Constraint Conditions included security of the area, storage capacity of landscape river, and drainage capacity of river and so on. The model was solved, and the optimal algorithm of dispatch scheme was gained. Based upon the theory of dividing flood season, the result was more applicable to practical condition. At the same time, the effects of underlying surface, rainfall Intensity and period on runoff coefficient were taken into account.Thirdly, reasonable scheduling methods were generated by adopting the Scenario Analysis and proposing rainfall scenoria. On the premise of ensuring safety of river and area, the storage capacity was maximum.At last, Decision Support System of the rainwater optimizing operation based on SQL server 2000 was developed, adopting Delphi 7.0 and matlab for programmer. Recording, editing, querying and deleting data of monitoring were realized, which could supply datas for rainwater scheduling. At the same time, forecasting rainfall was realized. Besides, the frame of software systems was built for research results.更多还原