【作者】 葛从锋；

【导师】 孙健；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 亚洲金融危机以后,在宽松的国内外经济政策环境下,我国经济增长出现了新一轮的快速增长,然而伴随着高速增长也出现了行业产能过剩、银行存差过多、国际收支顺差、外汇储备高企等经济现象。在经济转轨的背景下,这些现象综合影响造成了整个经济体系的流动性过剩,导致了经济发展的局部过热,进而带来了巨大的通货膨胀压力。2007年初的国务院常务会议上,温家宝总理指出要把抓紧缓解流动性过剩矛盾作为当前以至全年宏观调控的重点。2007年底中央经济工作会议在部署2008年经济工作时明确提出,2008年要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策,实行了十年的稳健货币政策正式转向从紧,表明了政府对整个经济形势的认识和态度。经济体系的流动性过剩问题已经成为当前和将来一段时间我国经济发展和宏观调控面临的主要问题,对经济体系流动性过剩的现状和影响进行分析,探讨流动性过剩产生的深层次原因,并找出缓解流动性过剩的相关措施是本文的研究目的。流动性过剩是一个涵义复杂的经济金融现象,从不同的角度可以有不同的界定。我国当前的流动性过剩现状是经济体系长期积累的集中释放,是国内外经济金融矛盾在货币层面的反映,是与转轨背景下产业结构升级和体制转换相联系的结构性过剩,是一种相对的流动性过剩,而不是流动性的绝对过剩。流动性过剩的生成原因既有经济金融的结构性因素,又与经济主体的行为和宏观经济绩效的反馈有密切联系,需要结合我国经济转轨过程中的各方面因素去综合分析。流动性过剩是一把双刃剑,既要抓住流动性过剩的机遇,加快经济结构的调整,促进经济金融改革,又要加强对流动性的管理,防止出现通货膨胀和流动性黑洞两个极端上的流动性风险,保证经济体又好又快的发展。论文对国内外关于流动性过剩问题的研究进行了全面详细的文献综述,在此基础上,采取了理论分析与实证分析相结合的系统化分析方法:先从一般基本原理分析入手,结合我国转轨时期面临的国内外经济金融环境,对当前流动性过剩的表现和存在的问题进行深入分析,针对流动性过剩的潜在风险提出了相应的对策建议。在分析流动性过剩的生成原因方面,论文先是以产业组织理论中修正的SCP分析范式为框架,从经济金融结构、经济主体行为和宏观经济绩效三个方面对流动性过剩问题进行了系统的因素分析。在因素分析的基础上,运用向量自回归模型(VAR)对相关影响因素进行了实证分析,以进一步分析各变量因素在长期均衡关系下对流动性过剩的贡献度。最后,论文在结合我国流动性过剩的现状和成因的基础上,提出了缓解流动性过剩的总体策略和具体策略:总体策略上,坚持“标本兼治,综合解决;由外及内,固本清源;多管齐下,长短结合”的原则;具体策略上,从节源、开流、固本三个方面入手来控制、疏导、吸纳流动性。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the Asian financial crisis, China’s economic growth has seen a new round of rapid growth in the liberal economic policy environment at home and abroad. At the same, many economic phenomena have been appeared accompanied by a rapid growth such as the excess industry capacity, excess deposit balance of banks and high foreign exchange reserves. In the background of China’s economic transformation, the combined effects of these phenomena caused the entire economic system of excess liquidity, resulting in the development of the local economy overheating, which brought tremendous pressure on inflation.In the State Council executive meeting early 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that resolve contradictions of excess liquidity should be the current as well as whole year’s focus of macro-control. It is explicitly proposed that we will implement a stable fiscal policy and tight monetary policy in 2008 when we arrange the economic work of 2008 in the central economic work conference. Stable monetary policy for a decade turning to tight implies the Government’s knowledge and attitude of the entire economy situation that. The excess liquidity of the economy has become a main problem of China’s economic development and macro-control in the current and future. Trying to analyze the current situation and impact of excess liquidity, to discuss the deep-seated reasons of excess liquidity and to look for the related measures to ease the excess liquidity is the study purpose of this paper.Excess liquidity is a complex economic and financial phenomenon, there are different definitions from different angles. The current situation of excess liquidity in China is a result which is economic system’s short-term release under long-term accumulation. It is related with the industrial structure upgrading and the system transition under transition context, which is a relative excess liquidity rather than the absolute excess liquidity. When to discuss the reasons for excess liquidity, it not only have the fact of the existing economic and financial structural, but also the economic entities’behavior and macroeconomic performance feedback, which needs to comprehensive analysis with various factors of China’s economic transformation. Excess liquidity is a double-edged sword, on one hand, we should seize the opportunity of excess liquidity to speed up the adjustment of economic structure and promote the economic and financial reforms, on another hand, we also should strengthen the management of liquidity to prevent the two extremes emergence liquidity risk and make sure the economic develops fast.Based on aggregating the study on problem of excess liquidity in the domestic and international, this paper uses the systematic analysis method that combines the theoretical and empirical analysis methods: First, we start with the basic theory of excess liquidity. Then, we analyze and discuss the performance and affect of the current excess liquidity under the domestic and international economic and financial environment in China’s Transition Period. At last, we give the corresponding countermeasures in view of the potential risks of excess liquidity. When we discuss the reasons of excess liquidity, first the paper analyzes the facts of excess liquidity systematically from three aspects on economic and financial institutions, economic entities’behavior and macroeconomic performance feedback in framework of SCP analysis paradigm that is a theory of industrial organization, based on this, the paper uses the VAR model to further analyze empirically the variable factors in the long-term equilibrium relationship. In the end, the paper proposes the overall strategy and specific tactics to mitigate excess liquidity in the light of the situation and reasons of excess liquidity in China. On the overall strategy, we should adhere to the principle that is "once and for all, integrated solutions; from within and outside, reinforce-source; combining the long-term and short-term approach”. On the specific strategies, we can consolidate control, ease, and absorb liquidity from saving sources, opening channels and consolidating body.更多还原