【作者】 王华；

【导师】 林龙飞；

【作者基本信息】 湘潭大学 ， 旅游管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 发展潜力是城市旅游业生命得以延续的关键因素,是每个成功城市旅游业必备的条件。对旅游城市发展潜力进行正确的评价,可以指导政府和投资者进行正确投资、推动我国旅游管理学科的发展,可以为旅游持续发展指明方向、提供多元化经营的新思维。面对世界经济全球化使我国城市旅游业所处的外部环境更加变化多端和难以把握的现状,面对当今我国相当多的旅游城市持续发展能力不太理想、发展潜力尚待挖掘的现状,面对理论界在如何分析、评价和挖掘旅游城市发展潜力这一问题上尚未完善的现状,从旅游层面研究旅游城市的发展潜力问题,正确评价发展潜力态势,使任何旅游城市都能看到自己与理想城市的差距而加快发展,具有十分重要的现实意义。目前国内外对旅游城市发展潜力研究比较少。本文借助旅游城市、工业发展潜力和模糊数学中的层次分析法等相关理论,结合旅游城市的影响因素,并按照7条原则和四项注意,构建了评价旅游产业发展潜力的评价体系,并对长沙市的旅游产业发展潜力进行了评价。全文共包括5章。第1章是绪论,阐述了本文选题背景及意义、国内外研究进展和本文研究内容及思路。第2章运用旅游学、旅游经济学、数学分析法、旅游可持续发展理论严格界定了旅游企业发展潜力、旅游城市发展潜力等相关概念;并分析其特征,最后对旅游城市发展潜力的三个主要影响因素进行探析。第3章提出了旅游产业发展潜力指标体系的设置原则、指标选择的准则,依据这些原则、准则,建立了旅游城市发展潜力评价体系,并对其进行解析,而且借鉴了无量纲化评价系统。第4章:运用模糊数学中的层次分析法,构建了旅游城市发展潜力体系模糊评价模型。第5章对长沙市旅游产业发展潜力进行了实证分析。选择采用从长沙市自然环境、经济状况以及历史文化背景入手,详细分析了长沙市旅游产业在国民经济中的地位、目前旅游企业发展状况和旅游资源开发状况,得出长沙市旅游产业发展潜力在全国居领先水平的结论。提出进一步拓展长沙市旅游潜力的方向。本文的结论有以下几点:首先,旅游城市发展潜力体系包括支持潜力系统、保障潜力系统、旅游市场需求与供应潜力系统;其次,通过国内几个旅游城市发展潜力对比,得出长沙市旅游发展潜力良好;再次,旅游城市发展潜力评价体系应采用模糊评价法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Development potential is the key tourism industry of tourism industry of city that tourism industry’s life can be extended and an indispensable condition of each successful tourism industry. Evaluation to the tourism industry’s development potential correctly can instruct the government and investor how to carry on correct investment, and promote the development of business administration subject of our country; can point out the direction for tourism industry’s continual-development strategy, and offer the new thinking of pluralistic management. In the face of the current situation that the globalization of world economy makes external environmental conditions that tourism industrys of our country face become more changeful and more difficult to grasp, in the face of the current situation that continual development captourism industry of tourism industry of city of quite a lot of industrial tourism industrys is not very ideal, and development potential is waiting to excavate, in the face of the current situation that theory circle has not perfected the issue that how to analyze, evaluate and excavate development potential yet, it is a significance to research questions about the development potential of Chinese tourism industrys from tourism industry’s level, and appraise development potential correctly, so as to make any tourism industry be able to see one’s own deficiency and exerts oneself to catch up with the first-class tourism industry.At present domestic and international study to the potential systems of urban’s travelling development is very little. This thesis This thesis makes strictly definition of the basic concept about the development potential of the tourism industry and the potential systems of urban’s travelling development, and so on. deeply probes into the characteristic of the potential of development in tourism industry and the relationship among the competitiveness of the toursim industry, sustainable tourism development and other concept.and according to seven regulations and four probroms, constructing target system of appraisaling development potential in traveling industry, and using AHP in the fuzzy mathematics, we analyze and appraise the potential of development Changsha’s traveling industry throgh analyzing.The thesis is divided into 5 chapters. The first chapter is intruduction. In this part, the author points out the background of the topic and the significance of the research, then set up a research frame for the paper. The second chapter makes strictly definition of the basic concept about the development potential of the tourism industry and the potential systems of urban’s travelling development. The third chapter points out the fundamental of probes into the characteristic on the potential of development in tourism industry and the relationship among the competitiveness of the toursim industry. The fourth chapter makes use of AHP in the fuzzy mathemetics to fuzzy evaluation in the developing potential of tourism city. The fifth chapter makes a diagnosis analysis on the the potenial of development of ChangSha travelling industry. From the angle of the natural enviroment,economical state and the background of historical culture,The thesis detailed analyzes the postion of the ChangSha travelling industry in the national economy,current state of the tourist enterprise and toruist resources’s development ,and proposes the developing direction of ChangSha future tourism potenial.This article conclusion has following several points: 1st, tourist city development potential system including support potential system, safeguard potential system, tourist market demand and supply potential system; 2nd, through the domestic several tourist city development potential contrast, obtains Changsha traveling development potential to be good; 3rd, the tourist city development potential appraisal system should use the fuzzy appraisal law .更多还原