【作者】 梅鸳仙；

【导师】 许冰；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,浙江省取得了令人瞩目的成就,在经济增长、社会进步和城市化发展等方面取得了长足发展。浙江省经历了一个从农业社会向工业社会转变、大量劳动力从农村向城镇转移的过程。如此大规模的人口转移必将对浙江的经济发展产生重大而深远的影响。城市化发展是一个非常复杂和庞大的社会经济动态系统,随着经济的发展,城市化发展道路也发生了转变。城市化对于中国经济增长的促进作用已经得到国内外学术界的一致认可。但是,对于如何度量改革开放以来浙江城市化发展对经济增长的作用和影响,是我们不可回避也急需解决的问题。本文试图利用现代经济计量方法,用面板数据协整来描述经济增长和城市化的关系。经济增长和城市化是互相影响的,本文选用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数研究两者之间的相互影响程度,以及经济增长和城市化之间存在长期关系而不是短期的内在联系。根据发达国家经验,城市化并不总是促进经济的发展,有时候反而会引起经济倒退,也就是会出现所谓的过度城市化。本文就利用面板数据的固定效应模型来测度经济增长对于城市化的弹性。本文以浙江省的数据和浙江省的十一个地市的面板数据,研究关于经济增长和城市化这两者在浙江省的具体表现。首先回顾了已有的研究在城市化、经济增长以及这两者之间关系的理论成果,界定了城市化,经济增长的范畴。第二部分,对本文实证阶段所要用的主要理论和模型的进行了具体的介绍。文章第三部分以浙江省数据和浙江省十一个地市的资料,对经济增长和城市化进程进行实证分析,得出这两者之间的相互影响关系并给出了经济增长对于城市化的弹性,并且从弹性的角度出发,得出了浙江省的城市发展目标,以及温州和舟山的城市化与经济增长道路的比较。第四部分,探讨了提高城市化水平和经济增长的意义,提出了一些关于如何提高城市化水平以及经济增长的若干政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reforming and opening, The southeast China of Zhejiang province acquires world-shaking achievement, makes further progress in economic growth, social progress, urbanization development and so on. Zhejiang undergoes the course of society transformation from agriculture to industry, and labor force transformation from countryside to urban areas. From 1978 to 2005, the urbanization level rose from 11.92 percent to 27.53 percent. There is no doubt that such large-scale population transformation would produce tremendous and far-reaching influence on economic growth. The urbanization development is a quite complex and enormous social economical dynamic system. as the development of economy, the urbanization development load in China changed its style. It has been recognized congruously by the academe that the urbanization development would accelerate the economic growth. Nevertheless, the problem is still in dire need of solving, that is, how to measure the effect and influence of urbanization development. This paper tries to do some research from this point of view. We apply modern economic measure instrument, to explain the Relationship between economic growth and urbanization development. Economic growth and urbanization development affect each other .So we via introducing VAR model and impulse function to reflect the effect of the growth on urbanization and urbanization on growth. Economic growth and urbanization development contacts over long period’s relationship but not short time periods. Therefore, we make use of panel cointegration to describe the link in this paper. What’s more, urbanization development would not accelerate the economic growth all the time according to developed countries’ experience. Sometimes it will make economic growth backward, which is called over urbanization .The paper makes use of fixed effects models to measure the urbanization elasticity.Our attention is concentrated on studying how urbanization impacting economic growth and how economic growth impacting urbanization in Zhejiang province via series data and panel data.The article retrospects theoretical workers on urbanization economic growth and the relationship between them. It also defines the urbanization category and economic category. In the second section, the paper introduces the theory and models used detailed in the demonstration stage. In the third section , the article looks over them in Zhejiang province. What’s more , the paper analyze the urbanization over Zhejiang province and compare the urbanization of Wenzhou with Zhou Shan. Finally, the paper discuss the meaning of improving the economic growth and urbanization, and gives some suggestion on how to improve urbanization and economic growth.更多还原