活动时间不定条件下基于活动群的工程项目挣值管理研究

【作者】 刘洁；

【导师】 宇德明；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程规划与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着信息社会的演进和知识经济的发展,现代项目各要素之间的关联性越来越强,对项目集成管理的需求越来越高。对于建设行业而言,集成管理主要是要求企业能够以较低的成本、合理的工期、较好的质量完成项目目标。国内外的研究和实践表明,挣值法是实现这一目标的一个有效工具。项目活动时间不确定性对于项目本身和项目进度问题都会产生深刻的影响。它不但使项目活动的时间产生不利于进度控制的变动,而且对常用项目进度计划方法带来冲击。本文首先介绍了挣值法的基本理论,包括挣值法的概念、起源与发展历史,挣值法的三个基本要素,并总结了挣值法的指标体系,具体分析了几组具有代表性的绩效指标值的特征及计算以及挣值分析的六种情形。其次提出了一套完整的挣值法的应用流程。其中研究了不同性质工序的挣值(Budgeted Cost Of Work Performed,简称BCWP)的不同计算方法;并且在挣值法原有的两个绩效分析指标的基础上又添加了两个绩效指标——成本差异率和进度差异率,并给出了计算公式。最后分析了进度/成本偏差出现的原因,并给出了可以采取的调整措施。接着介绍了活动群和时间调节器的概念,讨论了在活动时间不确定条件下的项目进度管理问题。活动群的设置消除了失效的安全因子,減少了管理层数,避免人为原因造成进度拖延,有重点地控制各个活动,从而简化了项目进度控制的难度。加入时间调节器增加了活动群的相对独立性,使单个活动时间的变动对项目总体进度影响减小。最后着重讨论了项目活动持续时间均服从PERT三点估计时项目在各观察点的挣值绩效指标值的计算方法,给出了某一项目在该种情况下各观察点的最可能的挣值绩效指标值的仿真结果,并在此基础上,探讨了基于活动群的挣值管理问题,构思了项目在最佳和最坏两种情形下的进度绩效指标值曲线和成本绩效指标值曲线,分析了进度绩效指标值曲线范围和成本绩效指标值曲线范围在项目进度、成本、质量控制中的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of knowledge economy and gradual progress of the information intensive society, the relationship between modern project every key elements has become stronger, the demand for the project integration management has become more important. So far as the construction field concerned, integration management requires that the enterprises should have the ability to achieve the construction target within a lower cost, a suitable time and a higher quantity. According to the research in and abroad China, we can find that Earned Value is an effective method to realize the purpose.The uncertainty of every activity time in projects has deep effects to the projects and the project scheduling problems. It impacts the traditional project scheduling methods.The basic principle of earned value is introduced and the concept, the origin and the development of earned value are included. The index system and six cases of earned value management are analysed and studied in this paper.On the basis of describing the basic theories of earned value, this paper brings forward and comparatively integrity EVM flow. The BCWP calculation methods are studied corresponding to different conditions. Two new performance indicators are added and the calculation formulas are put forward-the rate of CV and the rate of SV. The reasons of the variance are analysed and the measures are given.This paper brings the activity group and the time adjuster into the project scheduling when the schedule of activity is unfixed, which makes the projects completed under plan with higher probability.The paper has a hot talk about the method of calculating the Earned Value indexes when the schedule of activity is unfixed. The answers of Earned Value indexes to one project are given in this paper. The bound of SPI and CPI to one project are calculated, which are very important in project control, such as cost control, schedule control and quality control.更多还原