我国货币政策区域效应差异性的理论与实证分析

【作者】 王振；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 传统观点认为,货币政策应该会有一个全国一致性的效应,这种观点忽略了国家(或货币区)内金融经济的非均衡性。目前,我国东部、中部、西部经济差距越来越大,忽视国内各地区经济发展的不均衡而实行统一的货币政策,其结果可能加剧区域经济发展的不平衡。论文从区域经济发展的角度,借鉴分析最优货币区理论、新凯恩斯主义的不完全信息模型、货币内生前提下的后凯恩斯主义观点等理论,从理论上说明了货币政策区域效应的存在。进一步从货币政策传导渠道区域差异的理论分析揭示了货币政策区域效应差异性的存在及原因。结合理论分析,构建VAR模型,采用最新数据,从货币政策价格效应、投资效应区域差异性及货币政策传导渠道区域差异性三个方面检验我国货币政策区域效应差异性的存在。实证结果表明,无论是对投资还是对物价指数,货币政策东部地区的调控效果都要好于中部和西部地区。我国存在货币政策效应区域差异性。货币政策传导渠道区域差异性实证检验表明,东部地区无论是利率传导渠道,信贷渠道,还是资产价格渠道,表现的都比较畅通。中部地区和西部地区信贷传导渠道较好,利率渠道和资产价格渠道传导效果不是很好。货币政策传导渠道的区域差异性与各地区产业结构差异,信贷可得性的差异,资产价格状况差异等方面有很大关系。针对我国货币政策区域效应差异性的存在,借鉴国外的经验,依据相关理论,提出针对不同的区域采取有差别化的货币政策。这些措施主要包括:货币政策工具区域差别化,货币政策调控效果中介目标区域差别化,完善各区域货币政策的传导机制,改革目前的中国人民银行大区分行制的结构体系,健全区域经济、金融信息监测体系等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traditional points referred that the monetary policy should have consistency results. This point ignores the non-equilibrium of the economy in the same country (currency areas). At present, the economic disparities areas are growing between the eastern area, central area and western area. Neglecting the imbalanced domestic economic development of all regions and implementing a unified monetary policy may increase regional economic development imbalances.From regional economic development perspective, paper studied and analysist the Theory of Optimal Currency Area, New Keynesian incomplete information model, the point after the Keynesian. The effects of monetary policy regional differences exist in theory.With the theoretical analysis, constructing VAR model, the paper has carried empirical research on asymmetrically regional effect of China monetary policy from the regional price effects, regional investment effects and the monetary policy transmission channels regional effects. The results showed that the money supply did different impacts on different areas. Price effects of the monetary policy and the investment effects of the monetary policy exist in different areas in our country. The empirical research of the monetary policy transmission channels regional effect showed that the transmission channels of the interest rate, credit and asset price are smoother in eastern region. The credit channel are smoother in central and western region, however, the interest rate channel, credit and asset price channel are not very good. The paper analysis the reasons for the exist of the effects of monetary policy regional differences from the industrial structure, credit difference, asset situation in different areas.The end of the paper gave some suggestion that we should study the experiences of the foreign countries and implement different regional differentiation of monetary policy in our country against the status of China’s monetary policy . These measures include: to use the different monetary policy tools in different area , to set the effect of monetary policy regulation intermediate goal of regional differentiation, to improve the regional transmission mechanism of monetary policy, to reform the current system of the PBC branch in the structure of the system, to construct regional economic and financial information monitoring system.更多还原