【作者】 康珍珍；

【导师】 韩天锡；

【作者基本信息】 天津理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪末,由于全球电信基础设施的过量投资,各国电信基础服务的竞争日趋残酷。而就在此时,电信增值服务的诞生则为电信行业拓展了广阔的新兴市场,而移动增值服务则是电信增值服务业中最重要的部分。然而,出乎人们的预期,2004年以来,中国移动增值服务业的发展却举步维艰。本文针对移动增值服务业的现状,以移动增值服务创新产品在市场中的扩散特征为研究对象,最终揭示出用户的采用行为在创新产品市场发展中的作用。通常在对创新产品扩散的研究中,大多数学者都将Bass模型作为其理论基础。认为创新扩散是信息传播的结果,即当采用者知道创新的消息后,就会采取采用行为。而本文则是在M. Kaivan2004年提出的学习行为的不完美信息假设(Imperfect information)和H. Peyton Young在2006年提出的异质采用者的“社会学习”(Social Learning)理论的基础上,对中国移动增值服务创新产品的扩散特征进行研究。在具体的研究过程中,根据移动增值服务创新产品自身的特点,将创新产品分为“基础产品”(primary products)和其“附随产品”(complements),分别对他们的扩散比例、扩散速度和加速度特征进行研究。其中,在对附随产品扩散的研究中,除了考虑学习行为的不完美信息假设和异质采用者的社会学习理论外,还通过研究Peterson和Mahajan的附随扩散理论(Co-diffusion model),建立了移动增值服务创新产品附随扩散加速度模型。研究的结果为:“基础产品”和其“附随产品”在扩散初期即阻力水平较低时,创新产品扩散加速度的分布为凹,呈现递增状态。而随后在余下的大部分时间里,随着阻力水平的不断增大,扩散加速度的分布为凸,呈现渐进递减的状态。由异质采用者的“社会学习”理论可以认为,在创新产品被采用的初期,社会学习推动了采用者比例迅速提升。然而,对于中国移动增值服务创新产品市场而言,有关产品的正负面信息对于用户采用行为的影响是非常敏感的。这主要由于每个用户对于创新产品的期望阈值处在一个中等的水平,即是说,用户普遍预期创新产品能为他们带来的收益很一般。另外,在研究中还得到“基础产品”和其“附随产品”的关系为:随着基础产品采用者人数的逐渐饱和,将会明显地加快其附随产品被采用的速度。也就是说,基础产品被采用的状况会带动其附随产品被更多的用户接受。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the end of the 20th century, the telecom infrastructures have been invested excessively. The competition for basic business had become increasingly brutal in telecom industry. At this time, Telecom Value-added Services for telecom industry developed a broad emerging market. Wireless Value-added Services is the most important part in Telecom Value-added Services. However, it’s incredible that, in 2004, the development of Wireless Value-added Services is so difficult in China. In this paper, I research on the innovative product diffusion in Wireless Value-added Services markets. Eventually the heterogeneous adopters’behaviors are revealed in the development of innovative product markets.One common explanation for the diffusion of innovations is information contagion: adoptions occur once they hear about the existence of the innovation from someone else. (Bass, 1969, 1980) However, in this paper, the study bases on imperfect information hypothesis (M. Kaivan, 2004) and social learning in heterogeneous adopters (H. Peyton Young, 2006), and establishes the model of acceleration of innovative product diffusion in Wireless Value-added Services markets.In the specific research process, innovative products are divided into two categories, primary products and its complements, based on the characteristics of products in Wireless Value-added Services markets. And their characteristics of diffusion are studied respectively. Among them, in the study of acceleration of innovative complements diffusion, I establish its model based on Co-diffusion theory (Peterson and Mahajan, 1978), in addition to imperfect information hypothesis (M. Kaivan, 2004) and social learning in heterogeneous adopters (H. Peyton Young, 2006).According to the research, I find that, in the early stages of adoption, the curve of acceleration of primary products and its complements is concave increasingly, while the resistant is low. Subsequently, in the most time, the curve of acceleration is convex decreasingly, while the resistant is increasing. In terms of social learning theory, social learning produces the super-exponential growth rates in the early stages of adoption. However, in Wireless Value-added Services markets, the positive and negative effects to the behaviors of adoption are very significant. It’s mainly because, to the most adopters, the perceived gain from adoption is in the middle level. In other words, the adopters think that the expected payoff gain from the innovative products is not enough.In addition, according to the research, I also find, the relationship of primary products and its complements is that the speed of adoption will be accelerated, while the number of adopters for primary products increase. In other words, the number of complements is driven by primary products.更多还原