【作者】 王兴华；

【导师】 陈伟珂；

【作者基本信息】 天津理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国城市交通现代化的飞速发展,城市轨道交通也进入快速发展时期。地铁作为城市轨道交通的重要组成部分,其建设规划和安全施工状态也越来越受到人们的关注。由于其施工多技术的交叉性、复杂性和施工环境的特殊性决定了地铁建设项目的高风险性,故1990年以后,中国城市地铁发生了数起重大损失事故。地铁施工灾害的预测与控制成为人们关注的焦点。为了更有效的预防地铁施工事故的发生,本文运用对比法、文献综述法、RBS等方法,在分析以往地铁施工灾害事故预警系统的基础上,基于可拓理论的视角,从预警的具体流程出发,建立预警基础数据库,分析警情,最终得到预测结果,具体内容如下:首先对地铁施工安全管理现状进行了论述,阐明当前地铁施工安全管理任务的严峻现象。并在此基础上,分析了现有的地铁施工安全管理理论,包括KPI安全绩效管理体系、OHSAS理论、事件树方法等,指出了现有地铁施工安全管理理论对灾害事前监测、控制不足,提出了建立地铁施工灾害预警系统的必要性。第二部分对灾害科学研究理论、系统科学理论、安全评价理论、预警理论及可拓理论等预警基础理论进行综述,为预警模型的建立奠定理论基础。同时结合地铁施工灾害特点,对现有的预警方法,包括常规方法、数学模型与逻辑分析方法、人工智能方法与可拓理论方法进行比较、评价,确定可拓方法在地铁施工预警中应用的必要性和可行性。第三部分首先对地铁施工灾害预警系统的基本内涵给予定义,为地铁施工灾害预警模型建立概念框架。然后沿预警流程“明确警情-寻找警源-分析警兆-建立预警指标体系-确定警限”,建立地铁施工灾害预警基础数据库,包括常见主要灾害警情、指标体系和警限数据库等。并在此基础上,基于可拓理论方法,针对警情状况建立可拓模型,通过关联度判定,最终确定警情的状态——预发生事故类型和事故所处警级。最后,案例分析,运用可拓预警模型对某地铁线A路车站基坑施工灾害进行警情分析,论证了本文建立的预警模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the modernization of the Chinese urban transport, the UMT has also entered the rapid development period. As the important component, the planning and the security of Metro construction have attracted more and more attention. Because of the complexity of the multi-technology and the particularity of construction environment, the sunbway project is high-risk. since 1990,there are several significant losses accidents about metro in china. The prediction and control of metro Construction disaster have become the focus of attention.In order to prevent metro Construction incidents more effectively, this paper analyzes the early warning systems of metro construction disasters in past metro projects, build basis database of early warning based on extension theory and from detailed process, analyzes the indicators and forecasts the results, by the methods of contrast, the literature review, RBS and so on.A concise idea of this topics is as follows.First discuss the metro construction safety management, clarify the the current security management tasks. then analyzes the existing theory of metro safety management, including KPI、OHSAS and FTA, by which, this paper points out the existing deficiencies of metro construction safety management, and the necessity of building early warning systems.Secondly, this paper does literature review of Disaster scientific theory, System Science theory, Safety Evaluation Theory, early warning, and extension system, as the theoridital foundation of early warning model. At the same time, according to the features of the subway construction disasters, this paper compares and evaluates the existing early-warning methods including conventional methods, mathematical models and logic analysis, and artificial intelligence methods and the extension, then identify the necessity and feasibility of Extension methods in the metro construction.Thirdly, this thesis defines the early warning system of metro Construction to establish the conceptual framework of early warning model, then establishes the early warning database, including the intelligence of disasters, the index system and the Limits. based on extension analysis the indicators, and ultimately determine the status– the type of accidents and the level of incidents development.Finally, a project about the subway line A is studied as a case in order to prove that the early-warning model based on extension is effective.更多还原