厦门港口发展趋势判断与战略选择分析

【作者】 陈明；

【导师】 葛中全；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 工商管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 21世纪是海洋的世纪,21世纪是经济贸易全球化的世纪,港口是海洋与陆地连接的纽带和桥梁,港口是海洋经济和陆地经济的交点,在经济全球化趋势增强、科技革命迅猛发展、产业结构调整加快、经济合作与竞争共存、国际贸易进一步扩大的新形势下,港口无疑将继续扮演一个重要的、不可或缺的角色。随着经济的发展,港口功能从传统上的运输功能向工业生产、商业、服务等多功能的方向发展,伴随着大量物流、资金流、信息流的汇集,港口越来越成为社会经济活动的集聚地,其发展水平己成为衡量一个国家或地区社会经济发展水平的重要标志。港口作为我国对外贸易的重要口岸,在我国经济发展中占有重要的地位。当前,正值我国在大力发展海峡西岸经济区建设的时期,东南沿海经济带是我国在逐步形成“珠三角”、“长三角”和“环渤海”经济圈后的下一个重点,在我国经济发展中占有极其重要的战略意义。我国正兴起了新一轮的港口建设热潮,厦门港作为东南沿海港口群中最大的集装箱港口,在世界贸易中海运量不断增长、货物集装箱化率比重不断增大的情况下,将越来越大的作用。本文按照战略研究的一般程序,从港口发展现状开始,分析了厦门港的发展现状以及周边港口的概况,并结合现代港口特征,从总体上展现厦门港内外部环境的影响因素及其发展趋势,迫切需要重新定位以适应新形势的要求。为了对厦门港未来的发展趋势有个比较清晰的把握,依据厦门港以及厦门市的历史数据用指数平滑以及相关性回归分析等预测方法,将港口的发展与区域生产总值、区域对外贸易以及国民生产总值和我国的对外贸易发展状况相联系,对厦门港乃至东南沿海港口群经济发展趋势做出较为准确的判断,为厦门港的战略定位奠定基础。然后,对影响厦门港港口发展的外部环境和内部环境进行定性分析,将SWOT分析方法应用于厦门港港口内外部环境分析,通过层次分析法构造内外部因素评价矩阵,将厦门港的优势与劣势、面临的机会与威胁予以定量化,从而得出厦门港应该采取增长型发展战略的结论。最后依据厦门港口发展的战略目标,结合发展趋势判断和战略环境分析的结果,对可选择的战略发展类型进行多方位的分析,独辟蹊径提出放弃大而全的国际枢纽港发展方向,结合现实情况重点发展商贸港(区域枢纽港)的战略选择。并为最终实现战略目标提出多种战略措施,除了借鉴其他港口成功的经验外,还前瞻性地提出大范围的跨区域整合方式—厦门港整合泉州港以及福州港和宁德港的整合思路,并创新性地提出组建台湾海峡两岸港口群战略联盟的构想。更多还原

【Abstract】 The 21st century will be an oceanic century and a global economy’s century. As the link between the ocean and the land, ocean ports will certainly play an inevitable and critical role in the international trade under the environment of the increasing trend of economic globalization, the rapid revolution of IT, the fast adjustment of industrial structure and further international cooperation and competition of world economy. With the development of economy, the ports function has changed from the transportation to the production, business, and services etc. With the logistics, fund and information have gathered together, the ports have become a pool of several businesses; it is a mark of the level of social-economical development of a country or a region. As an important window of foreigner trade in our country, the ports have main position at the economical development.At present, it’s the building period that China is strongly developing the economy of the west side of the Taiwan straits, the southeast coastal economic belt is a next focus of economic development after the“the Zhujiang delta economic zone”,“Yangtze delta economic zone”and“around Bohai economic zone”, and it has a strategic significance at the economical development of China. With the rapid economic development in the coastal areas, Xiamen port has played a very important role of port group in the southeast coastal.This dissertation provides an improvement of general procedures of development strategic research. At first, analyzed the current developing situation of Xiamen port and the port around it, and refer to the features of modern port, displayed the problem in the development of Xiamen port.This paper select some correlative historical data of Xiamen city to forecast the develop trend of Xiamen port by Triple Exponential Smoothing Method and Regression Analysis Method. It uses SWOT to examine the outer and inner environment of Xiamen port development and develops an evaluation matrix of inner and outer factors to makes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of Xiamen port. It concludes that Xiamen port should take growth-oriented development strategy. Finally, based on the strategic goal of Xiamen Port Development, through the multidimensional analysis of the alternative types of strategic development, I posed the strategic positioning conjecture and the measures how to take.更多还原