【作者】 李娜；

【导师】 田月昕；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳农业大学 ， 会计学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 我国已加入世界贸易组织,市场经济在迅速发展,企业的市场主体地位已经确立,企业竞争日益激烈,企业国际化经营的程度不断提高,从而导致企业外部环境复杂多变,企业生存发展的风险越来越多、越来越大。农业上市公司是农业企业发展到一定程度所实现的较为先进的一种企业组织形式,是我国农业产业资本化的主要途径之一,是中国农业在WTO背景下参与国际竞争的主力军。农业上市公司在迎接改革和发展机遇的同时,也面对更加激烈的竞争,面临新的、更大的风险和危机。截至2006年底,39家农业上市公司中有11家被特别处理,同时有4家当年营业利润、净利润、经营活动产生的现金流量净额均为负。可见,农业上市公司要想保持长期稳定的发展,就必须加强风险管理,建立适合我国农业上市公司的财务预警系统。在以往的财务风险预警研究中,绝大多数都是针对整个上市公司而言的,极少预警研究会专注于某一具体行业。在学习了国内外先进的预警理论后,本文首次将财务预警研究应用于我国的农业企业,选择沪深证券交易所2006年所有农业上市公司作为研究样本,在充分考虑行业特点的基础上,构建农业上市公司的财务预警指标体系,从偿债能力、盈利能力等五个方面选择21个财务指标作为初始变量,通过T检验筛选出11个指标,这些指标在财务危机公司与正常公司之间存在重大差异,接着运用因子分析法提取了7个主因子,对7个主因子进行Logistic回归分析,构建适合农业上市公司财务风险预警模型,并进行模型的预警效果检验和拟合度检验。最后,随机抽取2家农业上市公司连续两年的财务数据,用Logistic回归模型进行预警分析,检验该模型的长期预测效果。实证研究表明,影响我国农业上市公司财务状况好坏的因素主要是盈利能力因素、资产增长能力因素、现金股利支付能力因素、短期偿债能力因素、销售增长能力因素,其中影响其财务状况的主要财务指标为:资产留存收益率、每股收益、总资产增长率、每股经营现金流量、每股净资产、流动比率、销售增长率。该预警模型的总体预测效果为86.1%,模型的拟和程度较高,说明该预警模型具有较高的实用价值,能够很好的判断农业上市公司的财务状况,并据此作为企业采取措施的有力依据。因此,该预警模型体现行业特色,实用性强,可用以预测我国农业上市公司的财务危机,以减少企业破产造成的损失,具有较强的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 After China has joined the World Trade Organization, market economy is in the rapid development, and market dominant position has been established. The enterprise competition is day by day intense and the international management degree enhances unceasingly, resulting in the external business environment is complex and changeable, the survival and development of enterprises is faced with more and more risk. Agricultural listed company is more advanced form of a business organization with the agricultural enterprise developing to a certain extent, and is the capital of China’s agricultural industry and the major channels under the WTO background to take part in international competition. Agricultural listed companies are meeting the reform and development opportunities, but also face more intense competition, facing new and greater risks and crises. By the end of 2006, 11 companies were special treatment in the 39 agricultural listed companies, at the same time, the operating profit and net income, operating activities generated net cash flows of 4 companies are negative, we can see that, agricultural listed companies in order to maintain long-term and steady development, must strengthen risk management and establish appropriate financial early warning system suitable for China’s agricultural listed company.In the study of the financial warning, the majority of researchers have focused on whole listed companies, and few have paid attention to early warning of a specific industry. After studying at home and abroad advanced early warning theory, this paper will be the first to apply the financial early warning to agricultural enterprises in China. Choose all agricultural listed companies of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in 2006 as samples, in full consideration of profession characteristic, construct agricultural listed company’s financial warning indicator system, and then choose 21 indicators from the solvency ability and profit ability etc 5 areas as the initial financial variables, screening 11 indicators through T tests, which exist major differences between the companies in the financial crisis and the normal, extract 7 principal factors through factor analysis, and then make Logistic regression analysis to 7 Principal factors, building suitable early warning model for agricultural listed company, and make model effects test of early warning and fitting test. Finally, choose 2 agricultural listed company’s two year finance data at random, carry on the early warning analysis with the Logistic regression model and examine this model’s long-term forecast effect.Empirical research shows that which affect the financial situation of our country’s agricultural listed company is that profit ability factors、assets increased factors、the capacity to pay cash dividends、short-term solvency ability factors、sales increased capacity factors, the main financial indicators which affect its financial situation include: retirement assets yield, earnings per share, the total assets growth rate, operating cash flow per share, net assets per share, liquidity ratio, sales growth rate. The early warning model forecasts the overall 86.1 percent effect, and has a higher fitting degree, proving that the model has a high practical value, and makes a good judgement of agricultural listed company’s financial situation, accordingly, as a powerful basis to take measures for enterprises. Thus, the early warning model of industry manifests the profession characteristic, practical strong, and can be used to forecast China’s agricultural listed company’s financial crisis, with a view to reducing the losses caused by corporate bankruptcies, and has strong practical significance.更多还原