【作者】 王丽；

【导师】 孙军；

【作者基本信息】 北京化工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 危险品生产量和运输量迅速增加,并且危险化学品公路运输事故频繁发生,后果严重,这使得危险品公路运输的选线问题越来越引起了企业和学者的重视。国内对该问题的研究取得了一定的进展,同时也存在着不足:通常用人口伤亡数表示运输风险,没有重视环境因素;大都是定性分析等。因此,本文对危险化学品公路运输选线问题进行了研究,以期为相关企业提供选线的基本决策依据。首先,参考国内外研究成果,结合专家意见,从运输总成本(运输风险成本和运输费用)出发,建立了危险化学品公路运输选线指标体系。指标体系综合考虑了运输事故对人、环境和财产的影响,并强调了环境污染风险成本,将环境敏感区分为三类:河流湖泊等水资源、旅游区和自然保护区、农业园区,分别给予权重,使得指标体系更加完善。其次,运用层次分析法和专家调查法,确定了各指标的权重。在此基础上,构建了较完整的危险化学品公路运输选线定量评价模型,包括:危险品公路运输事故率估算、运输风险成本估算、运输费用估算和运输路线的综合评价。最后,通过对液化石油气从廊坊市到邯郸市的运输选线项目进行分析,验证了选线指标体系和定量评价模型的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The production and transportation quantity of hazardous chemicals are increasing rapidly. Chemical accidents take place continually and the consequences are extremely serious. So the hazardous chemicals routing problems by road transportation become more and more important. The study on the issue has made some progress in China, but there are some insufficiencies, that is, the population risk is used to show transportation risks, and the evaluating method is qualitative analysis. Therefore, the author studied the hazardous chemicals routing by road transportation, in order to provide the related corporations routing decision-making basis.Firstly, referring to domestic and foreign research fruits and expert advice, the author founded the hazardous chemicals routing index system by road transportation. The index system included population risk, environment risk and property risk. The sensitive environment areas were divided into three kinds, that was, water resource, travel industry sites and cropland. Secondly, the various indicators’ weights were made by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and expert survey. A whole hazardous chemicals routing quantitative evaluation model was established, including accident frequency estimation model, transportation risk estimation model, transportation expenses estimation model and Comprehensive estimation model. Finally, the author analyzed the transportation routing project of LPG from Langfang to Handan. The result validated the practicability of the hazardous chemicals routing index system and quantitative evaluation model.更多还原