【作者】 倪敏；

【导师】 丁邦俊；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 概率论与数理统计， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 产品质量安全状况是一个国家经济发展水平和人民生活质量的重要标志。产品质量关系人民群众切身利益,关系企业的生存和发展,关系国家形象。目前,我国已是一个制造大国,我国制造业总产出在世界的排位已是第三,制造业的产品中有130多种产品产量排世界第一。同样在出口中,制造业的产品出口比重超过了80%。但是,我国产品中拥有核心技术、真正拥有自己的知名品牌的比重还是相当的低。从我国经济发展的趋势来看,我国产品必须从提高质量竞争力和核心技术能力方面赢得竞争优势。特别在当前,我国出口产品质量和食品安全问题被一些国家和媒体进行炒作,除了国际贸易保护主义抬头的因素外,也有自身一些产品确实存在质量和安全问题的因素。因此,我们必须大力提高产品质量,创造质量过得硬的名牌产品,不仅通过数量的增长,还要通过质量的提高来推动国家的经济增长。我国《产品质量法》第十五条规定,“国家对产品质量实行以抽查为主要方式的监督检查制度,对可能危及人体健康和人身、财产安全的产品,影响国计民生的重要工业产品以及消费者、有关组织反映有质量问题的产品进行抽查。”产品质量监督抽查作为我国提高产品质量和安全水平的一项重要措施,自1985年开始实施至今,已经积累了大量的抽查数据,鉴于经济发展与质量进步的密切关系,一个重要的问题是,如何运用统计方法从这些数据中找出一些规律性的信息,来客观地衡量和准确地反映宏观经济发展状况,为政府部门对经济宏观调控和加强产品质量监管提供科学的决策依据。目前,国内对这方面的研究,主要集中在从行政角度考虑的质量技术监督等政府部门,研究的方法侧重于定性分析,而这方面的定量分析研究则不多,并且对这些抽查数据如何进行科学分析以指导今后质量监督工作,在这方面体现得还不够充分,产品抽样合格率的变化与国民经济发展的密切关系在统计分析上的科学论证还不多见。本文运用了定量和定性相结合的统计方法,引用了大量未公开(内部)和公开的数据资料,在这些方面力求做些尝试性的探索。本文主要做了:1.采用假设检验等统计方法对国家监督抽查全国产品平均合格率与上海产品合格率进行对比分析和变化趋势分析。2.采用假设检验等统计方法对十五期间国家监督抽查上海产品合格率影响因素进行分析。3.采用回归分析方法研究了产品抽样合格率指标与国内(上海)生产总值、上海工业总产值等国民经济指标的统计相关性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety for product quality is one of the most important symbols of the level of the economic development and the living quality of the people. Product quality is related to not only the fundamental interests of the people, but also the survival and development of the enterprises and the national image.At present, China has been a big power in manufacturing industry. Its total output has ranked the third in all countries. The output of more than 130 kinds of manufacturing products has come first in the world. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing products occupies more than 80% in the total export. But we are lack of core technologies and our own famous brands. Proceeding from the long-term development of the economy, we must increase our competitiveness by improving the quality of products and the level of core technologies.Especially at present time, the problems about the product quality and the food safety have been a global issue played up by some media and foreign governments. Why? Apart from the protectionism trade policies, we must admit that there are quite a few quality and safety problems about our products. So we must make great effort to improve the product quality and create well-known products of good quality to promote the development of the economy not only by the means of increasing the products output but also by upgrading its quality.In accordance with the Article 15 of the Product Quality Law "The State shall, with respect to product quality, enforce a supervision and inspection system with random checking as its main form. Products constituting possible threats to the health or safety of human life and property, important industrial products which have a bearing on the national economy and the people’s livelihood, and products with quality problems as reported by users, consumers or relevant organizations shall be subjected to random checking." Product quality supervision and inspection, as an important measure to improve the product quality and safety, by which we have collected a mass of data since the implementation of the law in 1985.Because of the relations between the development of the economy and the improvement of the product quality, we put forward an important subject that is how to use statistic methods to find some regularity from the data. We can use the results to evaluate and reflect the development of the macroeconomy objectively and exactly, moreover, to provide scientific basis for the government to strengthen macroeconomic control and product supervision and inspection. Nowadays, the research about this subject at home mainly concerned on the administration of the quality and technical supervision from government sectors. The main emphasis about Research methods is placed on the qualitative analysis. It is necessary to do some more quantitative analysis.In order to guide the quality supervision and inspection work more scientifically, we still lack of scientific verification about the relations between the change of the ratio of the standard products random checked by the government and the development of the national economy. This paper uses the method of combing the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis. It also takes advantage of a mass of data that has not been made public to conduct an exploratory research. The primary task of this thesis is as follows:1. Use hypothesis test and other statistical methods to do comparing analysis and the trend analysis related to the average ratio of the standard products of the whole country and that of shanghai random checked by authorized institutions.2. Use hypothesis test and other statistical methods to analyse the factors that influence the ratio of the standard products in shanghai during the 10th Five-Year Plan.3. Use the regression analysis to analyse the statistical correlation of the index of the ratio of the standard products of shanghai and the national economic index of GDP or the total value of industrial output.更多还原