【作者】 黄倩；

【导师】 杨来科；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 1993年以来,我国国际收支持续十余年双顺差,不仅经常项目大量贸易盈余,而且资本与金融账户也有大规模顺差。本文以中国近二十年的国际收支情况为研究对象,深入研究人民币汇率变动对国际收支差额的影响,尤其是对贸易收支和外国直接投资的影响,进而分析汇率变动对国际收支影响的效果,得出人民币升值的必要性,并且给出人民币汇率调整的政策建议。文章首先讲述了研究的背景和意义,归纳了当前关于人民币汇率贸易收支效应的几种观点,并在此基础上提出了本文的研究内容和研究方法。第二章简单介绍了近年来我国的国际收支状况,并简述了汇率变动对国际收支产生影响的方式。第三章重点研究了人民币名义汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响,在弹性分析模型的基础上进行进出口需求价格弹性的实证分析,选取2005年以来的数据讨论人民币升值所产生的贸易效应。第四章中选择外国直接投资作为资本和金融项目的代表,在我国资本流动的数据基础上着重分析了人民币汇率变动的资本效应,即对我国FDI的影响,并讨论了人民币升值之后外商投资的发展趋势和思路。文章的最后对前文的分析讨论进行了总结,并提出了人民币汇率小幅升值、逐步加大浮动范围的汇率调整策略,给出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1993, our balance of payment has already hold double surplus for over 10 yearswhich not only involves abundant trade surplus in Current Account but also exists inCapital Account. Taking the BOP (balance of payment) of China in recent 20 years asthe objective, the paper studies the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation uponBOP especially on the trade balance and the Foreign Direct Investment. With thefurther analysis of the impact, the paper comes up with the necessity of RMBappreciation and also offers some policy suggestions for the RMB exchange rate’sadjustment.The paper first tells the background and significance of the research, summarizesseveral popular opinions about the effectiveness of RMB exchange rate adjustmentupon the trade balance, and puts forward the researching approach and frame of thestudy.Chapter Two simply introduces the current situation of our BOP and the ways how theexchange rate fluctuation affects BOP.As one of the emphases of the paper, Chapter Three studies the infection of RMBexchange rate fluctuation upon the trade balance, makes demonstration and analysisbased on Marshall-Lerner Condition, and selects data ever since 2005 to discuss theinfection of RMB appreciation upon the trade balance.Chapter Four chooses the Foreign Direct Investment to represent Capital Account,based on the data of capital flow, analyses the infection of exchange rate fluctuationupon Capital Account, which equals the impact to FDI, then discusses the developingtendency as well as directions of the FDI after RMB appreciation.In the end the paper sums up the previous analysis, brings forward the way ofexchange rate adjustment which means RMB appreciates slowly while the floatingrange enlarges gradually, finally gives some policy suggestions.更多还原