【作者】 任波；

【导师】 刘廷玺；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 水是生命的源泉,是人类赖以生存的不可替代的资源。建设节水型社会是解决我国水问题、统筹人与自然和谐发展、全面建设小康社会、实施可持续发展战略的必然选择,是实现水资源可持续利用的战略性举措。研究区域节水型社会评价,对于促进区域“水资源、生态环境、经济社会”的协调、持续发展,引导区域节水型社会建设具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在论述节水型社会的概念、核心和内涵的基础上,分别进行了以下几方面的研究。(1)对“水资源系统、生态环境系统、经济社会系统”进行了分析,建立了基于“水—生态—社会”相协调的节水型社会评价复合系统。(2)在对大量数据分析研究的基础上,通过系统地剖析复合系统各要素(指标)之间的关系,用主成分分析法对各项指标进行了合理筛选,构建了基于“水—生态—社会”相协调的区域节水型社会评价指标体系。(3)利用层次分析法确定了各评价层评价要素(指标)的权重;结合综合指数法通过建立数学模型对研究区节水型社会进行了评价;并对整个评价体系进行了敏感性分析。(4)运用模糊评价法进行了对比分析,验证了评价成果的可靠性。(5)对研究区各县市区节水型社会进行了评价和分区对比,评价结果较为符合客观实际。(6)对研究区未来各规划水平年节水型社会进行了预测分析评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the headspring of life and the irreplaceable resources with which people lived. Construction of the water-saving society is the inevitable choice to solve national water problems, coordinate the harmonious development of human being and nature, build a comfortably-off society and carry out the strategies of sustainable development, also it is a strategic initiative to achieve sustainable utilization of water resources. The researches on evaluation of the regional water-saving society plays a very important theoretical and practical meaning of promoting the coordinated and sustainable development of“regional water resources, ecological environment and economic society”and guiding the construction of water-saving society.This paper based on the discussions of the concept, core and connotation of the water-saving society, respectively carried out following researches:(1)Firstly, analyzed“the water resource system, ecological environment system and economic society system”, established a combined evaluation system of water-saving society which based on the coordinated“water resources -ecological environment - economic society”.(2)By the numbers analyzing of the relationship among various element(sindicator) of the combined system, adopted principal component analysis to reasonably select the various indicators and structured a regional water-saving society evaluation indicator system which based on the coordinated“water resources -ecological environment - economic society”.(3)Adopted the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method to identify the weight of evaluation elements(indicator)of various evaluation levels and use the Comprehensive Index method to evaluate the water-saving society of study area by builting a mathematical model; meanwhile, carried out the sensitivity analysis of the whole evaluation system.(4) Applied Fuzzy Evaluation method to conduct a comparative analysis and verify reliabilities of the evaluation.(5)Carried out the evaluation and subarea-analysis which be aimed at the water-saving society of various counties and districts of study area. And the evaluation is similar to objective reality. (6)Finally, this paper made a forecasting evaluation of the water-saving society of study area in future planed-years.更多还原