【作者】 张玉玲；

【导师】 吴宜进；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文根据相关资料叙述了湖北省自然资源和经济概况,并提出耕地资源减少、森林破坏、水土流失、水质下降、旱涝灾害严重等生态环境问题。本文从三个方面来定量分析湖北省是否具有可持续发展潜力。首先运用生态系统服务价值研究方法,列表分析湖北省近十年生态系统服务价值变化情况。得出,湖北省生态系统服务价值主要提供者是森林、草地和农田。其中森林和草地的服务价值逐渐提高,而农田的服务价值却在降低,但总的生态系统服务价值是在波动中上升的。湖北省生态系统服务价值在2003年波动不稳定有下降趋势,但是在2003年之后又逐渐抬升。湖北省人均生态系统服务价值是在波动中上升的,2001年之前以下滑为主,但是波动幅度比较小;2001年之后以上升为主,上抬幅度较大,2003年又出现一次大幅度下跌。生态足迹模型计算分析了湖北省近十年生态承载力、生态足迹和生态盈余(赤字)变化情况,并进一步分析出湖北省生态经济发展能力。湖北省人均生态足迹在2001年出现一个低谷值为1.42977,其后几年生态足迹稳步上升;湖北省人均生态承载力在波动中上升,其中2002年出现一个最低值,这与湖北省人均生态系统服务价值发展趋势是一致的。湖北省生态盈余强度虽然还处于负值,但是其数值是在波动中上升的。总体上来看生态盈余强度从1997年的-2.128653上升到2005的-1.501804,2001年生态盈余强度达到最大值-1.23286。湖北省的社会经济发展水平(即Ulanowicz发展能力)随着时间的变化,在1999年——2002年之间出现一个低谷期,但是其总体趋势逐渐增强。生态不安全指数计算来源于生态安全的分析,生态不安全度越高说明区域生态环境破坏越严重,越不可持续发展。本文根据统计资料分析出湖北省人地关系矛盾突出表现为旱涝灾害严重,工、农业生产污染严重,污染治理投入强度及生态建设投入不足等方面。综合各评价指标,湖北省2005年生态不安全度达到0.27367,属于较不安全状态。湖北省近十年生态不安全度在波动中下降,均处于较不安全状态。2002年以前曲线波动幅度大,1998年出现回升现象随后又逐年下降;2002年之后曲线波动幅度变小,且逐年下降。虽然2005年湖北省生态不安全度仍然高为0.27367,但是与1997年的0.421478相比降低了0.140478。生态不安全度的下降表示湖北省生态系统安全度的上升,由此也可以证明湖北省可持续发展具有很大潜力,但是仍然要注意生态环境的保护。基于以上分析,文章主要从三方面提出可持续发展建议。一:经济可持续发展措施,主要包括工业可持续发展、农业可持续发展和旅游可持续发展。二:社会可持续发展措施,主要包括人口可持续发展、消费可持续发展。三、生态环境可持续发展、社区可持续发展等。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper describes the natural resources and economic profiles of Hubei Province based on relevant information, and proposing ecological problems such as farmland reduced, forest destruction, soil erosion, declining water quality, serious drought and flood disasters, Etc.Whether Hubei province has the sustainable development potential this article quantitativly analysis from three aspect. The situation of ecosystem service value changing of Hubei province is researched based on the study methods of ecosystem service value. Forest, grassland and farmland are the main provider for the ecosystem service value of Hubei. The ecosystem service value was being rised, such as forst and grassland, But the ecosystem service value of farmland was being reduced.Wether,the total ecosystem service value was being riseing in the undulation. The total ecosystem service value of Hubei was unstable and had a drop tendency in 2003,but was being rised after 2003. Per ecosystem service value of Hubei was being rised in the undulation, It was mainly declind before 2001 but the margin of fluctuation was small;After 2001 It was mainly rised and the margin of fluctuation was big. But it also appeared hardly reduction in 2003.This paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus / deficit calculation of Hubei provinces nearly 10 years, which also calculates and analyzes the development ability of ecological economy. Per capita ecological footprint in Hubei province had reached the lowest value which is 1.42977 in 2001, while ecological footprint was steady rising in subsequent years; The per capita ecological carrying capacity was being rised in the undulation in Hubei province, which appeared the lowest value in 2002, and which developing trend was consistent with the Ecosystem service value. Although per capita ecological surplus value was still negative in Hubei province, it was being rised in the undulation. Jenerally speaking the strength of ecological surplus was rised from -2.128653 in 1997 to -1.501804 in 2005. The strength of ecological surplus value reached the maximum -1.23286 in 2001. The value of socio-economic development level (the Ulanowicz development capacity) appeared a bottom period in 1999---2002, but it was being strenghthened in generally.The computation of ecological insecurity index comes from the ecological security analysis, The Degree of Ecology insecurity is hing the destroy of Ecoenvironment is more seriousily. Severe drought and flood disasters, serious pollution caused by industrial and agricultural production and inputted of pollution control and ecological construction not enough which are the contradictions in relations between people and earth in Hubei province based on Statistical data analysis in this paper. The degree of Ecology insecurity has reached 0.27367 which belong to a state of insecurity which based on integrated each evaluation Indexes. The margin fluctuation of curve becomes bigger before 2002, which appears rebound phenomenon in 1998 but then reducing; The margin fluctuation of curve becomes smaller after 2002.AIthough,in 2005 the Degree of Ecology insecurity is 0.27367 ,which compared with 0.421478 in 1997 has reduced 0.1404478 in Hubei province. The Degree of Ecology insecurity comes down indicating that Ecosystem become security. So, It proves that it has sustainable development potential in Hubei province, but it still need to pay attention to environmental protection.This paper mainly gives two recommendations about sustainable development based on above analysis.The one is Economy sustainable development measure, which includs Industry sustainable development, agriculture sustainable development and touring sustainable development; the other is Society sustainable development measure, which includs Population sustainable development, consuming sustainable development , the Ecoenvironment sustainable development, Ect.更多还原