【作者】 曹鑫；

【导师】 范世东；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 轮机工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的快速发展,城市人口的增加和居民生活质量的提高,石油已经成为我国需求最大和增长最快的能源。目前,我国石油需求量远远大于生产量,供应缺口越来越大。我国的石油进口主要来源于中东、非洲和南美,运输方式主要是通过海运完成的。为满足石油海运发展的需求,我国石油专用码头和石油仓储业务迅速发展起来。石油的水路运输具有运量大、中间环节少、周转快、货物损失少、经济效益和社会效益显著等特点。但是也存在着很大的危险隐患,由于石油具有燃烧性、腐蚀性、毒性、污染性和反应性等特性,并且运输量大,在运输过程中,任何一个环节出现问题,都可能引起火灾、爆炸和泄漏等严重事故,造成船毁人亡及对陆地、大气和水域的污染。因此,针对我国油港储运现状,对储运过程进行全面的危险辨识,构建安全评价模型和预警模型具有重要意义。本文在查阅大量文献和长期实际调研的基础上,以油港储运过程为对象,进行了深入的研究和探讨。论文主要包括以下几个方面的内容:(1)通过综合、全面的分析油港储运过程的危险因素,应用系统层次分析方法,对储运系统进行了科学划分。应用安全检查表和事故树分析方法,构建了基于人员因素、管理因素、油库、管线以及港口一油船的的重点危险子系统的辨识模型;(2)在对储运过程危险辨识基础上,提出了一整套油港储运过程的安全评价指标体系;针对我国油港储运现状,提出了较为适用的基于层次分析法的权重确定模型,并以长江某重要原油储运港口为研究对象,根据实际调研数据,对储运中的指标体系进行权重计算和一致性检验。(3)通过全面的风险分析和危险辨识,以油港储运过程为研究对象,建立灰色综合评价模型;并且根据评价结果,提出了相应风险控制对策和改进方案;(4)构建基于油港储运过程安全预警模型,主要包括:建立预警指标管理体系、构建综合安全风险预警模型、设计警情演示系统和制定应急救援体系,并且对指标体系和演示系统提出了改进方向和进一步研究重点的设想。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of Chinese national economy,the increase in urban population and improved quality of lives,need for petroleum has become the largest and fastest-growing source of energy.At present,our country’s petroleum need amounts over greater than production capacity,and supplyment gap is increasing. Chinese oil import comes mainly from the Middle East,Africa and South America which is mainly completed by sea.To meet the need for the development of maritime transportation of oil,oil port and the business of storage and transportation have developed rapidly.The advantages of the transportation of oil by sea are characterized by the large transportation capacity,the decrease in the turnovering time,the less loss of goods, economic returns,conspicuous social benefits and other notable features.But there are also many great hidden dangers.Because petroleum can cause burning,corrosion, toxicity and pollution,and the lagre amount in the petroleum transportation,in the process of transportion any accidents in the system would arouse fire,explosion, leaking,and other serious accidents which may result in the destruction of ship,the lost of life and the pollution of earth,atmosphere,water.Therefore,based on the status of our country’s oil port storage and transportation and by a comprehensive identification of the danger,construction the model of safety assessment and early warning system is of great significance.On the basis of a large number of related documentation and the long-term research,the paper concentrates on the oil storage and transportation by conducting deeply study and exploration.The main contents are as follow:1.Through an integrated,comprehensive analysis of the risk factors in the oil storage and transportation,and the application of system level analysis method,the safety checking list storage and fault tree analysis,the paper has build the model of risk identification based on the factors such as staffs,management,oil port,pipelines and oil tanker;2.Based on the risk identification of the oil port storage and transportation,the paper has put forwards a set of index system for the safety evaluation and established the weigh by using the hierarchy method.Relying on the statistics and datas form the research of an important oil port on the Yangtze river,the weights have been calculated and tested by the consistent method.3.Through a comprehensive risk analysis and risk identification,the paper has established the comprehensive safety assessment model baesd on the grey theory.And on the basis of the evaluation results,the corresponding risk control measures and improvement programme have been put forwards.4.The paper has constructed the early warning system including four main contents:the establishment of early warning index management system,the comprehensive early warning model,the design of the presentation systems and the emergency system,and has also put forwards the further improvement direction in the the index system and presentation systems.更多还原