【作者】 王丽萍；

【导师】 吴腾华；

【作者基本信息】 河南大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 2006年2月底,我国外汇储备余额为8537亿美元,成为世界第一大储备国。2007年底,我国外汇储备余额高达1.53万亿美元,创历史新高。我国外汇储备适度规模问题已成为学术界关注的热点,但是至今仍然没有形成一致的观点。在此背景下探索我国外汇储备的适度规模,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文试图建立适合我国实际的外汇储备适度规模模型,并提出相应的政策建议。本文共分以下五个部分:第一部分为导论,介绍了论文的选题背景、选题意义、文献综述、研究内容、研究方法和可能的创新之处。第二部分为外汇储备适度规模理论,提出了外汇储备适度规模的定义,并对国内外的外汇储备适度规模理论进行了回顾和评价,在此基础上总结出影响外汇储备规模的一般因素。第三部分为我国外汇储备规模现状及成因分析,分析了我国外汇储备规模的现状和这种现状对我国经济造成的负面影响,深入剖析了导致这种现状的原因。第四部分为我国外汇储备适度规模的模型构建与实证分析,在前文基础上对影响我国外汇储备适度规模的因素进行了分析,构建了一个适度规模模型。经该模型检验,当前我国外汇储备规模已经远远超过适度规模,存在着过剩。然后本文用现代计量经济学的协整理论对影响我国外汇储备规模的因素进行协整分析,最终得出结论:长期内决定我国外汇储备规模的主要因素是国内生产总值和外债余额。第五部分为实现我国外汇储备适度规模的对策,给出了解决当前我国外汇储备规模过大问题的两类对策:一是保持适度外汇储备规模,二是优化外汇储备管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 By the end of February 2006, China’s foreign exchange reserve stood at 853.7 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first in the world, and the figure rised to a new record of 1.53 trillion by the end of 2007. At present, the issue of appropriate amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve has become a focus in the academic world, but there is still no consistent point of view. In this context it is an important theoretical value and practical significance to explore the appropriate amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve. This paper tries to establish a model of appropriate amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve, and to put forward corresponsive policy recommendations.This paper is composed of the following five parts:Part one is the preface, introducing the background, literature summary, content and methods of research and possible innovation.Part two is the theory of appropriate amount of foreign exchange reserve, providing the definition of appropriate amount of foreign exchange reserve, reviewing and evaluating the theory and on the basis of this summing up the general factors affecting amount of foreign exchange reserve.Part three is the status quo and genetic analysis of China’s foreign exchange reserve, analysing the status quo and causes and the resulting negative impact on China’s economy.Part four is the model constructing and empirical analysis. On the basis of the above-mentioned this paper analyzes the factors that affect amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve, and constructs an appropriate amount model. It proves that the present amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve has far exceeded the appropriate amount, surplus existing. Subsequently this paper analyzes the factors affecting China’s amount of foreign exchange reserve with modern econometric co-integration theory and dividedly tests granger causality between these factors and amount of foreign exchange reserve. The ultimate conclusion tells that two factors including GDP and foreign debt decide on amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve in the long run.Part five is the countermeasure of accomplishing appropriate amount of China’s foreign exchange reserve. This paper puts forward two categories of measures: the first one is to keep appropriate amount of foreign exchange reserve, the second one is to optimize foreign exchange reserve management.更多还原