【作者】 渠霓；

【导师】 周学武； 龚健；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,我国对农村居民点规模布局的研究开展还比较少。我国农村长期缺少规划控制,发展比较盲目,存在着诸多问题,如占地面积过大,布局散乱,基础设施不够完善等;另一方面,由于经济的发展,各行业建设用地需求加大,出现了耕地资源短缺和城镇建设用地需求的矛盾。因此,研究如何使农村居民点用地走向集约化发展,对于缓解城镇建设用地供给不足的矛盾,增加耕地,促进新农村建设,具有重要的现实意义。本文对农村居民点的规模和布局从理论、方法上进行了研究,并应用此研究结果,采用临湘市新一轮土地利用总体规划修编的专题数据,进行验证分析。最后就如何实施“城镇建设用地增加与农村建设用地减少相挂钩”,提出了相关的保障措施。具体研究内容包括:(1)农村居民点用地的预测理论研究。在目前常用的几种规划预测方法中,选择了回归模型法、时间序列法、灰色模型法、马尔科夫模型法,通过比较各个方法的优缺点,同时考虑到此次土地利用总体规划中的基础数据为1996年到2004年,时序较短,农村居民点用地受诸多不稳定等因素影响,波动变化比较大,因此,线性回归法预测和灰色模型法预测精度低。而马尔科夫预测法适合波动大的数据,采用马尔预测模型法来修正灰色模型的残差数列,可弥补灰色模型法的不足,大大提高预测精度,理论上确定了马尔预测残差修正灰色模型的优越性。(2)农村居民点的布局理论研究。首先分析了农村居民点布局的特征原理,包括了区位原理,村镇规划原理,以及深层结构发展原理。在此基础上对我国农村居民点布局现状进行了研究,认为我国农村居民点布局发展主要受自然地理条件、传统文化、经济发展、国家政策因素的驱动,其中地理地貌是最重要的制约因素,现状布局形式主要包括以集镇、中心村为中心,周围带几个小村庄的卫星式,沿铁路干线、公路、河流分布的条带式布局,集团式和自由式等多种不同的布局形式。分布的整体特征是规模小而分散、人均用地大、发展无序,结构不紧凑等主要的特点。现有的几种居民点发展好的案例:koch等级模型、“三集中”模式、“大分散小集中”以及个别地区的地区模式,为未来农村居民点的发展提供了借鉴。(3)实证研究部分。以临湘市为例,应用前面两章的研究结果。采用马尔预测残差修正灰色模型方法,预测临湘农村居民点2005-2010年的用地规模,同时验证了这一方法的准确性。从地理学角度,对临湘市农村居民点分区研究,将临湘市划分为北部平原区,中部丘陵区以及东南山区,同时考虑农村发展的经济背景,提出了临湘市四个分区的发展模式,以指导县域范围内不同特征的农村居民点规划。(4)研究我国农村居民点未来发展的新思路。城镇建设用地增加与农村建设用地减少与相挂钩可以有效整合用地,改变现有农村居民点布局零乱、结构分散的局面,提高土地利用的集约化程度,缓解城镇建设用地供给不足。但我国“挂钩”政策实施面临诸多阻力因素,主要包括村镇体系规划滞后、农村居民点整理的观念障碍和资金障碍。“挂钩”政策的顺利实施需要一个健全的保障体系。本文总结了试点区的工作经验以及相关的调查分析,从法律法规、行政、经济、社会宣传、方法技术等几个方面提出了对策。(5)论文最后总结了本次研究的不足,并对进一步研究提出展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, less study on scale and layout of rural settlements has been done. Without town plan, our country developed disorderly for a long time. And there are a lot of problems existing in the country, such as too much of rural residential land but in disorder, inadequate infrastructure. On the other hand, per capita arable land is inefficient and the construct land is expanding. So in our country, it is very important to find how to utilize the rural residential land distribution intensively. It is significant that it can increase arable land, alleviate the problem of the insufficient supply of construction land, and promote to do new construction of rural country. The author carried out deep research on how to predict the amount of the rural residential land, and its distribution mode. Also, it takes example for Linxiang city in Yueyang. Finally, some protecting measures are proposed that can promote the actualization of the pothook policy.The specific summary is drawn as follows:(1)Predict rural residential land scale. A few prediction methods are chosen, such as regression model, time series model, Markov model, gray model. And then the author compares their advantages and disadvantages. Since the new land use overall plan is based on the data from 1997 to 2006, the rural residential land fluctuated without laws because of the policy change. Therefore, time series mode, linear regression model and grey Prediction have lower accuracy. On the other hand, large fluctuating data is suited for the Markov mode.(2) Made rural residential distribution mode. At beginning, the related theory is analised, the location theory, the town plan theory, the development of internal structure theory. The development of Chinese rural settlements is affected mainly by natural and geographical conditions, cultural traditions and economic development, and national policy-driven factors, and the geographical land cape is most important. Now there are several usual distributions modes such as the Town Centre Village in the center with Several small villages around like the satellite, the country located along railway lines highways and rivers like belt, syndicated in group and sit freely. The overall distribution is characterized by small and scattered distribution, and the large per capita land, disorderly, loosely, and so on. Several settlements model: the Koch grading model, the integration of urban and rural areas, the rural migration is good for the development of the settlements. (3) The actual research. In case study of the rural residential land in Linxiang, the grey model, residual amended by the Markov mode, is taken to predict the land scale during 2005-2010. The method is proved accurate. In the perspective of geography, Linxiang city is divided into three districts: the northern plains, the central hilly region and the southeast mountain. Based on the characters of district and economic background of rural development, the paper put forward four regional models in Linxiang city to guide the county development.(4) Countermeasure on the rural future residential land development. To increase construction land for building towns by reducing land for rural residential (shorted for "pothook" policy") can improve the scattered layout and decentralize the loose structure, improve the degree of intensive utilization of land. The major obstacles of "Linkage" policy are the town plan lags behind, the concept on rural settlements obstacles and financial obstacles. Implementation of "pothook policy" needs a sound security system. This paper summarizes the experience in the experimental areas, and the related investigation and analysis, and proposed some measures from the legal regulations, administration, economic, social advocacy, method, and so on.(5) Paper concludes its disadvantage, and put forward more imperfect research should be done in the further.更多还原