【作者】 王君；

【导师】 朱玉碧；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来近30年里,我国社会主义市场经济保持了快速、持续、稳定的增长,人民生活水平大幅提高。1979～2006年我国GDP年平均增长速度为9.6%;2006年人均GDP达到2004美元,城镇居民家庭恩格尔系数下降为32.6%。随着城市化进程的加快,我国房地产业进入快速发展阶段,带动整个国民经济结构调整和升级,在我国社会经济保持快速健康的发展中扮演着重要的角色,成长为国民经济的支柱产业之一。伴随着我国房地产市场的快速发展,房地产价格也呈现出持续快速上涨的运行趋势,2004年和2005年,全国商品房平均销售价格分别上涨17.76%和14.04%。与此同时,房地产投资过热、住房结构不合理、资源浪费严重、市场交易秩序混乱等问题也逐渐凸显。2005年至今,国家把控制房价快速上涨作为宏观调控的重点,陆续出台了包括土地、金融、税收以及房地产行业政策在内的一系列宏观调控措施,以抑制房价增长速度;2008年,国务院机构改革中撤销了建设部,组建住房和城乡建设部,国家对住房问题的重视可见一斑。为科学调控房地产市场,有必要对政策是通过什么途径产生调控效果、宏观调控政策对房地产价格是否有实质性的影响、政府如何有科学依据地出台调控房价的政策等问题进行深入研究。本文在对房地产宏观调控的必要性、房地产价格的影响因素以及宏观政策对房地产价格的作用机理进行深入分析的基础上,选取学界研究较少的二线城市——重庆市房地产市场进行实证研究,从定性和定量方面重点分析了2005年至2007年上半年的调控政策对重庆市房地产价格以及整个房地产市场的影响。本文大致可分为八个部分:第一部分为文献综述和绪论。主要概括了国内外房地产价格波动、房地产泡沫、房地产宏观调控的研究进展以及现有研究的不足,介绍了研究背景、研究内容、研究方法、研究意义以及研究所需资料的来源等。第二部分为房地产宏观调控的理论基础。主要对房地产相关概念进行了界定,并阐述了供求理论、预期理论、地租地价理论等后文分析中将要用到的相关理论知识。第三部分分析了房地产宏观调控的必要性。通过对房地产商品的特殊性、房地产业的支柱地位以及近年来我国房地产市场的主要问题的深入分析,得出我国有必要对房地产市场进行宏观调控的结论。第四部分深入分析了房地产价格变动的机理,该部分为本文的重点和难点之一,构成了本文的理论主体。本部分在分析了房地产价格变动的决定因素和影响因素的基础上,结合本文主题,重点分析了土地政策、金融政策和税收政策对房地产价格的作用途径和作用机理。第五部分分析了重庆市房地产市场现状及其泡沫化程度。本部分首先从房地产开发投资、房地产供给、房地产需求、房地产价格和房地产空置等几方面分析了重庆市房地产市场的现状,在此基础上,通过国际上通行的房地产开发投资指标、房价收入比指标、房地产空置率指标对重庆市房地产泡沫化情况进行了研判,找出重庆市房地产市场存在的主要问题是:房地产投资存在“过热”的趋势;近几年房价增幅出现大幅上升趋势;商业地产空置率持续保持在高位水平;近两年供需矛盾较突出,表现为供给跟不上需求。第六部分深入分析了新一轮宏观调控对重庆市房地产价格乃至整个房地产市场的实施效果,该部分也是本文的重点和难点之一,构成了本文的实证主体。本部分在简单分析90年代以来的房地产宏观调控政策的基础上,重点分析了2005年至2007年上半年的调控措施对重庆市房地产市场的影响,从定性和定量两个方面分析了调控政策对重庆市房地产价格的作用效果,研究证明2005年的宏观调控对房价没有产生实质性影响,而2006年的调控使重庆市房价有效回落;并指出本轮宏观调控的存在的不足之处是:调控措施对重庆市投资性和投机性需求的抑制作用不明显、商品房供需矛盾没有得到改善、对商业地产的调控力度也不够。第七部分为政策建议。本部分针对文中分析出的新一轮宏观调控存在的问题,结合重庆市房地产市场的实际,提出对重庆市房地产价格及房地产市场进行有效调控的政策建议。第八部分为研究的结论与讨论。总结了本文的研究结论,并对本文的不足之处和需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 During 30 years after the implementing of our country’s reform and open policy, our national economy has achieved a great, fast and stable development, along with the large enhancement of people’s living standard. From 1979 to 2006, the GDP annual average growth rate of our country was 9.6%; average GDP reached above 2,004 US dollars per person, and the Engel coefficient of city inhabitant family dropped to 32.6%. Following the footsteps of economy, our country’s real estate industry has been led into the fast lane, and plays a very important role as one of pillar industries in the development of national economy. Along with rapid development of the real estate market in our country,real estate price presented a tendency of sustaining fast rise .In 2004 and 2005,average sale price of commodity real estate rose 17.76% and 14.04% Y. to Y. seperately in our nation. At the same time ,some problems emerged gradually ,for example , real estate investment is too hot,structure of housing is unreasonable , land resourse is badly extravagent ,order of dealing is confuse etc. Since 2005,macro-regulation strss on controlling fast rise of real estate price and our nation carried out a series of macro-regulations including land policy,finance policy ,revenue policy and real estate industry policy. In 2008,Ministry of Housing and City-rural Construction instead of Construction Ministry,thus it can be seen extent of recognition on housing problem of our contry.In order to adjust and control the real estate market scientificly,it is necessary to lucubrate the problems of the approch of policy impacting real estate price,macro-regulations affect real estate price materially or not,how to carried out regulations availably,ect.In this paper, on the basis of lucubration of the need for macro-control of real estate, and real estate prices factors, as well as the mechanism of the impact of macr-policies on the role of real estate price ,the writer selected a secondary city - Chongqing City’s real estate market as the object of demonstrated study. The article focused on the affection of regulation and control policies of 2005-2007 for the first half in Chongqing Municipality on the real estate prices and the entire real estate market. This paper can be broadly divided into eight parts:The first part is literature summary and introduction, which mainly summarized the research development of the domestic and foreign real estate price fluctuations, the real estate bubble, the real estate macro- regulation and control as well as the existing research insufficiency, in addition, introduced the research background, contents, technique, significance as well as the research purpose and the material origin. The second part is rationale of real estate macro- regulation and control,which mainly introduced the related concepts of the real estate, and elaborated the related theories such as supply and demand theory, expectation theory and theory of land rent and value.The third part analyzed the necessity of the real estate macro-regulation and control. Through thorough analysis to the real estate commodity’s particularity, prop status of the real estate industry as well as main problems of real estate market in recent years in our country, the writer obtained the conclusion that our country had the necessity to carry on the macro- regulation and control to the real estate market.The fourth part ,which is one of the key parts and difficult parts of this article and formed the academic main body of this article ,penetrated into the mechanism of the real estate price change. On the foundation of the analysis of determining factors and influencing factors of the real estate price change, the wrirer analyzed the function way and action mechanism of land policy, financial policy and tax policy to real estate price.The fifth part has analyzed Chongqing real estate market present situation and the froth degree. This part first from the property development investment, the real estate supplies, the real estate demand, the real estate price and the real estate vacant and so on several aspects has analyzed Chongqing real estate market present situation, based on this, through internationally the general property development investment target, the house price income compared to the target, the real estate vacancy rate target has carried on the evaluation to Chongqing real estate froth situation, discovers Chongqing real estate market existence the subject matter is: Investment in real estates existence "overheated" tendency; In recent years the house price increased range has the large trend of escalation; The commercial real estate vacancy rate continues maintains at the top digit level; Near two year supplies and demands contradictory prominent, displays cannot follow the demand for the supplies.The sixth part analyzed the new round macroeconomic regulation and control thoroughly to Chongqing real estate price and even the entire real estate market implementation effect, this part is also this article key point and difficult one, constituted this article real diagnosis main body. Since this part in the simple analysis in the 90s in the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policy’s foundation, the selective analysis from 2005 to 2007 the first half of the year’s regulative measure to Chongqing real estate market’s influence, has analyzed the regulative policy from qualitative and the quota two aspects to Chongqing real estate price function effect, the research had proven that 2005 the macroeconomic regulation and control has not had the substantive influence to the house price, but 2006 regulation causes Chongqing house price to recede effectively; And pointed out that the epicycle macroeconomic regulation and control existence’s deficiency is: The regulative measure to Chongqing investment and the speculative demand’s inhibitory action not obvious, the commercial housing supply and demand contradictory has not been improved, to be also insufficient to the commercial real estate regulative dynamics.The seventh part is for policy suggestion. This part the new round macroeconomic regulation and control existence question which analyzes in view of the article, unifies Chongqing real estate market the reality, proposed that carries on effective regulative to Chongqing real estate price and the real estate market the policy suggestion. The eighth part is for research conclusion and discussion. Summarized this article research conclusion, and the question which and needs to further study to this article deficiency has carried on the forecast.更多还原