【作者】 阚丽丽；

【导师】 徐天祥；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 工业化是衡量一个国家经济发展水平的重要标尺,是现代化的基础和前提,是一个国家从农业文明走向工业文明、从贫弱走向强大的必由之路。中国的特殊国情及当代经济科技发展的特殊性决定了中国的工业化道路不能走发达国家曾经走过的道路,基于此,党的十六大适时提出了我国要走新型工业化道路的论断。这一论断是基于对国内外工业化经验教训的总结,根据世界经济科技发展新趋势和我国经济发展新阶段的要求提出的,对我国现代化建设,顺利实现第三步战略目标具有重要的指导意义。区域经济是国民经济的重要组成部分,区域工业化是国民经济工业化的基础。研究探索适合于一定区域的新型工业化模式既是实现区域经济跨越式发展的需要,也是落实中央决策的具体行动。山东、江苏、浙江、上海、广东同属东部沿海发达省份,分别位于我国环渤海、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲这三个最具发展潜力和活力的地区,区位条件优越,发展速度快,是我国现代化建设的先导区域。近几年来五省市的地区生产总值一直居于全国前五位,总量占全国的近一半,在全国占有重要地位。本文通过对五省市的新型工业化水平进行比较分析,把握各地区新型工业化的进程、实现程度及发展趋势,找出地区间发展的差距和存在的问题,分析五省市新型工业化的规律,为相关部门决策提供参考,有针对性地进行政策调控,更好的指导新型工业化的发展,对各省市政府以及各级地方政府制定未来的经济发展规划,以及对其他地区的经济发展都具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本论文采用理论研究与实证研究相结合,定性分析与定量分析相结合及比较分析的方法。论文主要分为五大部分。第一部分主要从工业化、新型工业化两方面进行了相应的理论研究。一方面,阐述了工业化的主要观点及工业化发展阶段理论。另一方面,从科学发展观、和谐发展论、人力资本理论、信息经济理论和经济增长理论这几方面论述了新型工业化的理论基础,阐述了新型工业化的内涵,并比较了新型工业化与西方工业化和中国传统工业化的区别。第二部分对鲁、苏、沪、浙、粤这五个东部沿海省市的基本省情和经济社会整体运行概况进行了阐述和比较分析,并运用传统工业化阶段划分法对五省市工业化所处阶段进行了判断。从总体上来判断,江苏、浙江和广东均已处于工业化的中期末阶段,上海已经进入后工业化时期,而山东省仍处于工业化中期初始阶段。第三部分运用文献调查法、频度统计法结合专家咨询法,遵循目的性、科学性、系统性、可操作性和可比性的原则,在指标数据可收集的前提下,从发展水平、科技水平、效益水平、集约化水平、生态化水平、信息化水平、人力资本水平这七方面出发,构建了五省市新型工业化水平评价指标体系。运用层次分析法和专家咨询法确定了新型工业化评价指标权重,并结合国内外研究确定了评价指标的标准值,同时构建新型工业化综合评价模型及定量判断划分标准。第四部分运用五省市新型工业化综合评价模型对沿海五省市2000-2005年新型工业化水平进行判定,得出新型工业化水平综合指数及排名,对五省市六年来新型工业化发展的速度、实现程度及发展的趋势进行了判定和比较分析,运用发展经济学,区域经济学,可持续发展经济学等相关领域的理论成果,从七个方面对新型工业化各指标进行了比较分析,找出各省市的优劣势。主要结论是:山东省新型工业化水平低于其它四省市,且发展速度是五省市中最慢的,处于新型工业化中级阶段初期。江苏省新型工业化水平位居五省市第四,年均增长速度慢于上海和浙江,处于新型工业化中级阶段。上海市新型工业化水平较高,发展速度较快,与其他四省相比优势明显,已进入新型工业化高级末阶段,达到了中等发达国家水平。浙江省新型工业化虽然起步较晚,但发展势头强劲,位居五省市第三,处于新型工业化中级阶段。广东省新型工业化水平位居五省市第二,但与上海相比仍差距较大,且发展速度缓慢,仍处于新型工业化中级中期阶段。第五部分通过五省市新型工业化的比较分析,得出山东省在新型工业化进程中主要存在以下问题:产业结构升级缓慢,就业结构不合理;经济增长方式粗放,资源供求矛盾日益突出,环境污染问题较严重;人口基数大且人力资源综合素质及利用率较低;科技实力不强,自主创新能力有待提高;信息化水平不高,高新技术产业发展缓慢。针对山东省所存在的差距和问题,从长期和当期两方面提出了山东省提高新型工业化水平的对策建议。长期对策:(1)在发展思想上要坚持科学发展观;(2)以教育为发展基础,实施人才强省战略;(3)深化体制改革,推进制度创新,创造良好的发展环境;(4)以科技为发展动力,提高自主创新能力;(5)转变经济增长方式,走可持续发展的道路。当期对策:(1)打造山东半岛现代制造业基地(2)优化产业结构,加快服务业发展;(3)大力发展循环经济,推进清洁生产;(4)提高信息化水平,带动工业化跨越发展;(5)大力发展高新技术产业,坚持用先进技术改造提升传统产业;(6)鼓励和扶持中小企业发展,缓解就业压力;(7)加快农村工业化、城镇化进程,促进城乡经济协调发展;(8)转变政府职能,优化投资发展环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrialization is an important measure yardstick of a country’s level of economic development and the foundation and prerequisite for modernization. And it is also the only way for a country from an agricultural civilization to industrial civilization and from weak to powerful. China’s specific national conditions and the special particularity of contemporary development of economic and science and technology decided that China’s road to industrialization should not take the path trodden by the developed countries. Based on this, the 16th National Party Congress Proposed timely that China should take a new road to industrialization. This thesis is put forward basing on the lessons learned from industrialization at home and abroad. And it is also raised in accordance with the new world trends of economy and science and technology development, and on the request for China’s economic development in the new stage. It plays an important guiding role in China’s modernization drive and achieving the third-step strategic goal smoothly.Regional economy is an important component of the national economy and regional industrialization is the basis of the national economy industrialization. Studying and exploring a new type of industrialization model suitable for a certain region is the need to realize regional economic development by leaps and bounds and the concrete action to implement the central decision-making. Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, the developed eastern coastal provinces, located in China’s Yangtze River Delta and the coast of the Bohai Bay and Pearl River Delta which are the three most dynamic regions with development potential. In recent years the GDP of the five provinces and cities has been residing in the top five, the total accounted for nearly half the country, which holds an important position in the country. Through a comparative analysis of new industrialization level of the five provinces and cities, this article grasps the new industrialization process, the achievements and developing trends of various regions, identifies regional development gap and problems and analyzes the rule of the new industrialization of five the regions. Reference can be provided to related departments for decision-making to regulate and control policies pertinently and better guide the development of new-type industrialization. It will have theoretical and practical significance for various provincial and municipal governments as well as local governments at all levels to make future economic development plan, as well as for the economic development of other areas.This paper adopts the methods of theoretical research and empirical study, qualitative and quantitative analysis and comparative analysis. It consists of five major parts.The first part mainly studied the two aspects of industrialization and new industrialization theoretically. On the one hand, the industrialized main view and the developing stage theory of industrialization are explained. On the other hand, the theoretical foundation and the connotation of new industrialization are elaborated from the angles of scientific concept of development, the harmonious development theory, the human capital theory, the information economy theory and economic growth theory. The differences between the western industrialization and the traditional Chinese industrialization are compared.The second part makes an expatiation and comparative analysis of the basic province survey and the overall economic and social operating profile of the five eastern coastal provinces, and judges the industrialization stage of them with the traditional plotting method of industrialization phase. Judging overall, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have been in the end stage of the industrialization, Shanghai has entered a post-industrial period, and Shandong Province is still in the initial stage of the medium industrialization.Under the premise of collectable data, using the method of literature survey, the frequency of statistics combined with expert consultation, and following the objective, scientific, systematic, operable and comparable principles, the third part builds an evaluation index system of the new-type industrialization level in five provinces from seven areas of development level, science and technology level, benefit level, concentration level, ecological standards, information level and human resources level. AHP and expert advice are used to determine the evaluation index weight of the new type of industrialization, and the standard value of the evaluation indicators are determined according to internal and external studies. Meanwhile, a comprehensive evaluation model and quantitative standards of judgment of new-type industrialization are constructed.Using the comprehensive evaluation model, Part IV makes a judge of the new-type industrialization level of the five coastal provinces and cities 2000-2005, to get the composite index and the ranking, determines compares the speed, extent and trend of new-type industrialization of the five provinces in the past six years. Applying the theories of development economics, regional economics, sustainable development economics, and other relevant fields, a comparative analysis is made from seven aspects of the new-type industrialization indicators, to identify advantages and disadvantages of the each province and city.The main conclusion is: Shandong Province, the new-type industrialization level is is lower than other four and development speed is the slowest in five, is in the early middle stage of new-type industrialization. Jiangsu Province, the new-type industrialization level of which ranks fourth in the five, with a lower average annual growth rate than Shanghai and Zhejiang, is in the middle stage of new-type industrialization. Shanghai, with a higher level of new-type industrialization and development speed, has obvious advantages compared with the other four and has entered the end stage of new-type industrialization, to reach the level of moderately developed countries. Although starting late, Zhejiang Province has strong momentum in new-type industrialization. It is in the middle stage of new-type industrialization, the third of five. Guangdong Province, the second in five, with a slow space of new-type industrialization, still has a big gap between Shanghai. It is still in the early stage of intermediate new-type industrialization.Through a comparative analysis of the new-type industrialization of the five provinces and cities, Part V concludes the main problems in the process of Shandong new-type industrialization: the slow upgrading of the industrial structure, the irrational employment structure, extensive mode of economic growth, the increasingly obvious contradiction between supply and demand of resources, serious environmental pollution, a large population base and the low quality and utilization of human resources, weak scientific and technological strength, the ability of independent innovation to be raised, low Information level and the slow development of high-tech.Suggestions are given against the gap and problems of Shandong province. Long-term measures: (1) Uphold the scientific concept of development; (2) Regard educating as the development foundation, implement the strategy of talent’s strong province; (3) Deepen the system reforman and push forward institutional innovation to create the fine development environment;(4) Take science and technology as motive force for development and improve the ability of independent innovation; (5) Change the mode of economic growth and take the path of sustainable development. Current period countermeasure: (1) Make the modern base of manufacturing industry of Shandong Peninsula. Optimize the structure of industry, speed up the development of service trade; (3) Develop the circular economy vigorously, promote cleaner production and sustainable;(4) Elevate the level of information and promote the industrialization by leaps and bounds.(5) Promote technological progress and improve the ability of independent innovation;(6) Encourage and support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises to relieve the pressure on employment; (7) Accelerate rural industrialization and urbanization process to promote the urban and rural economies develop in harmony; (8) Transform the government’s functions, optimize the investment environment for development.更多还原