【作者】 汤宛地；

【导师】 骆有庆； 吴坚；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林保护， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 松材线虫病(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer) Nickle)是松属树种上一种毁灭性的外来入侵病害。安徽省于1988年首次发现该病以来已遭受巨大的危害,目前该病害正有蔓延的趋势,并逐渐逼近黄山风景区。黄山风景区分布着大量的松属植物,其中包括黄山松(Pinus taiwanensis)、马尾松(Pinus. massoniana)、黑松(Pinus. thunbergii)等感病树种。一旦松材线虫病在黄山风景区内爆发,将会对黄山的自然景观造成巨大且不可逆的灾害。本文通过对影响松材线虫病入侵黄山风景区的各个因子进行研究,利用@risk软件对影响过程进行模拟,对松材线虫进入黄山风景区的可能性和危害度进行分析,并对两者关联评价,完成松材线虫入侵黄山风景区的风险性评价报告,同时,针对分析结果,提出相应的风险性管理措施,最终完成风险性评估体系。主要研究成果如下:松材线虫病入侵黄山风景区的危害度评价结果中90%的概率区间位于1.1473~1.2941,期望值为1.228116,最小值为1.127012,最大值为1.320529。属于中度危害。气候因子对结果产生的影响最大。松材线虫病目前难以通过自然传播的方式进入黄山风景区,只会被人为携带进入黄山风景区,其传入可能性为人为传入可能性,其有90%概率区间为1.35436×10-2~4.41109×10-2,期望值为2.746933×10-2,最小值为1.16938×10-2,最大值为5.01634×10-2。主要属于高度可能。检疫力度对结果产生的影响最大。松材线虫病入侵黄山风景区风险性分析结果中有90%概率区间位于1.69164×10-2~5.45693×10-2,其最小值为1.119638×10-2,最大值为6.528641×10-2。期望值为3.379244×10-2。其中10%的区间位于中等风险区域内,90%的区间位于高度风险的区间内。期望值属于高度风险。其传入可能性的各项因子对结果产生的贡献度最大。通过上述综合风险性评价的过程与结果,对黄山风景区,本文提出了“预防为主”的风险管理措施:严格防止松材线虫病进入黄山风景区,是风险性管理中最重要的环节;同时,本文也针对黄山风景区,提出了相应的风险性管理措施,其主要包括预防措施、应急预案、灾后恢复三个方面的内容。具体而言,由于人为传播松材线虫病的特点是初次单点、小规模且具有明显病原疫木,因此在病害发生早期所采取的措施越及时,灾害就越容易得到控制。一旦灾害发生后,需要根据实际具体情况,立即启动应急预案,采取“自然恢复”为主的方针,对于黄山风景区的自然景观进行恢复重建。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pine wilt nematode,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer) Nickle) which was first found in Anhui province in 1998 can make serious damage to Pinus spp. At present it spreads quickly and gradually approaches to Huangshan scenic area. A large number of susceptible species such as Pinus taiwanensis Hayata, Pinus massoniana Lamb., Pinus thunbergii Parl. and so on distribute in Mount Huangshan. Once the outbreak of B. xylophilus occurre there, it would make much irreversible damage to natural landscapes.Factors which influence B. xylophilus invade Mount Huangshan were studied in this paper. The influencing process was simulated and the possibility, damage degree were analyzed by @risk software, the relevance between possibility and damage degree were also evaluated, from those risk assessment of B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan could be formed. According to the risk assessment results we can discuss the risk management measures, then the risk assessment system was established. The main research results of this paper are as follows: The damage degree of B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan was evaluated, 90% of the probability interval was between 1.1473~1.2941, the expected value was 1.228116, the minimum was 1.127012 and the maximum was 1.320529, which belongs to moderate damage, climatic factors have the most significant influence on the results.Speaking generally, B. xylophilus could only invade Mount Huangshan though human carrying spreading but not natural spreading, 90% of the invading probability interval was between 1.35436×10-2~ 4.41109×10-2, the expected value was 2.746933×10-2, the minimum was 1.16938×10-2 and the maximum was 5.01634×10-2, which belongs to high damage, quarantine inspection has the most significant influence on the results. When analyzed the risk of the B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan, 90% of the probability interval was between 1.69164×10-2~5.45693×10-2, the expected value was 3.379244×10-2, the minimum was 1.119638×10-2 and the maximum was 6.528641×10-2, 10% of that above was in moderate risk area and 90% was in high risk area. The expected value belongs to high risk. The factors of invading probability have the most significant influence on the results.According to the results of risk assessments, the measure of“prevention first”which could keep B. xylophilus away from Mount Huangshan should be taken. And the risk management measures were divided into three parts: prevention, emergency preplan and reconstruction after the disaster. Because of the characteristic of human carrying spreading is in small scale and with obvious infested wood, measures should be taken in time. Once the disaster occurre, according to the fact of Mount Huangshan emergency preplan which is mainly on“natural restoration”should be started at once.更多还原