【作者】 杨照芬；

【导师】 李伟；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（河北） ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 在我国发电侧电力市场建立以后,供电企业与发电企业变成市场上的交易双方,供电企业所面临的风险更加多样化。文章在分析电力市场交易模式和供电企业面临的售电风险的基础上,重点研究售电前购电量市场分配风险和售电后电费回收风险的对策。以负荷预测和电价预测为基础,按照现代投资组合理论,在考虑费用因素条件下,建立最优购电组合决策模型,并用遗传算法进行最优化求解,确定各个市场的最优购电量以规避购电量市场分配不合理的风险。运用遗传算法优化神经网络,建立用电客户信用评价模型,根据信用评价结果采取不同的管理方法来规避电费回收困难风险,并用实例验证两模型的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the establishment of electric power generation side power market, the power supply enterprise and the electricity generation enterprise turn to two transaction sides, the power supply enterprise faces various risk. On the basis of analyzing electric power market transaction pattern and the selling electricity risk of the power supply enterprise, this thesis researches the countermeasure of electricity purchase quantity market allotment risk before the electricity’s sell and measure of the electricity charge withdrawal risk. On the basis of the load and price forecast, according to the modern investment combination theory, under the consideration of expense factor, it establishes the best electricity purchase combination decision-making model, and carries on the optimization evaluation by inherits algorithm, then it determines a market optimization electric power quantity in order to dodge the risk of market’s unreasonable distribute to the buying electricity quantity. Optimize the nerve network by inherits algorithm, and establish a electricity user credit appraisal model, and adopt different management methods to dodge the risk of taking back the electrical bill according to the credit appraisal result, and validate the two models’validity by demonstration.更多还原