【作者】 杨坤峰；

【导师】 黄梅波；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 在经济全球化条件下,区域货币一体化成为一种发展趋势,出现了许多区域性货币组织。相较与欧盟(已形成欧元区)和北美(已形成自由贸易区),东亚的区域货币合作一直处于落后状态。20世纪末的东亚金融危机,扭转了东亚货币合作的被动局面,东亚各个经济体开始努力着手解决汇率稳定问题。而建立东亚汇率协调机制,是一个比较务实的构想。本文的理论和实证分析认为:第一,东亚地区应该积极借鉴欧盟经验,积极推动汇率协调机制的发展;第二,针对东亚经济体经济基础和发展速度迥异的现状,一篮子目标区爬行钉住是东亚地区过渡阶段的次优选择;第三,东亚汇率合作,应该先从加强政策协调开始,逐渐完善融资便利机制,最后先次区域后全区域逐步建立东亚汇率协调机制;第四,长远来看,中国参与东亚汇率协调利大于弊,中国应该积极推进东亚汇率协调机制的发展。鉴于这些分析,我们得出以下结论:长期来看,东亚汇率协调机制的建立是历史发展的必然趋势,但目前还不具备形成汇率协调机制的门槛条件。因此,东亚地区只能分阶段分层次地进行合作,并最终建立东亚汇率协调机制。而中国作为发展中大国,在此期间应该承担起推进合作的责任。本文的创新之处在于:尝试将那些实证分析的结果和东亚地区的地缘以及政治因素结合起来考虑,以确定每个次区域的范围。多数学者同意,在东亚建立区域货币合作的过程中,应该先建立次区域的合作,再建立全区域的合作。但是至今还没有统一的观点,到底应该建立那几个次区域,每个区域应该包含哪几个国家和地区,学者们或者进行定量分析,或者进行定性分析,二者的结合并不多。本文的不足之处是:本文借鉴欧盟的经验,提出对东亚汇率协调机制的看法。欧盟的经济与政治基础都和东亚有较大的差别。在经济上,东亚各个国家的经济发展速度差异很大;在政治上,东亚各个国家之间的政治关系较之欧盟复杂。因此,不能单纯的拿东亚的一些经济指标,给欧盟相比,来确定东亚汇率协调机制的建立步骤等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional Monetary Integration becomes a kind of uptrend under the economic globalization condition, some Regional Monetary Integration Organization had be established. According to the EU and the North African Free Trade Area, the East Asia is lagging on the Regional Monetary Integration. The Financial Crisis in the latter 21 century turned passive complexion of Regional Monetary Integration in the East Asia. The Economies had started to work out exchange rate stability problem. Setting up the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism in the East Asia is a more practical imagination.The thesis based on the following logic to develop the viewpoints. At first, the East Asia should reference to the experience of the EU, taking active on establishing the Exchange Rate Coodiantion Mechanism. The second, according to the difference on economy bases and tempo, the Pegging to Currency Basket is a hypo-choice for the East Asia. The third, the Exchange Rate Coordination should begin with strengthening policy communication, and perfecting regional financial, and from hypo-region to region to establishing the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism. The forth, in the future , the China has benefits from the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism, China Should take active measures to push the establishing of the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism. At last, I conclude: in the future, the establishing of the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism is an inevitable uptrend, but so far the conditions is not provided. The East Asia should coordinate in different grading and administrative levels, and establishing the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism in the last.There a highlights of the thesis: attempting combining the incomes of the demonstration analytic and geopolitics in the East Asia to confirm the bound of each hypo-region. A majority of scholars approve that the East Asia Monetary Coordination should start with hypo-region. But so far , there is not an agreement that how to build hypo-region. Some scholars adopt quantitative analysis, the others adopt qualitative analysis , but so little scholars combine them.The fall short of the thesis: the text use for the experience of the EU. The economic and politics bases in EU is different from the East Asia. On the economics, there is tempo gap in the East Asia; on the politics , the connections between the countries in the East Asia is more complexity. So , we can not simplex compare economics index to confirm the approach of the Exchange Rate Coordination Mechanism.更多还原