【作者】 王建军；

【导师】 东昉； 王健；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 新、马海峡是世界上最繁忙的交通要道之一,运载着占世界航运油量一半的原油及占世界贸易总量三分之一的商品。2005年我国原油进口量已达到1.27亿吨,进口原油的五分之四左右是通过新、马海峡运输的,目前每天通过海峡的船舶大约有200～300艘,其中近六成是中国船,并且绝大部分是油轮。预计到2010年,石油进口量约为2亿吨,其中1.5亿吨仍需要途经新、马海峡运输。大量的原油运输导致海峡水域的通航密度以每年约15%的速度增加,并且大型油轮越来越多。在有限的水域中拥挤如此多的船舶,航行危险度将变得越来越大,船舶安全性降低。提高油轮在海峡航行时的操船、管理水平,保证油轮的航行安全,保障我国石油运输线,保护海峡水域的海洋环境,已经成为油轮及其所属公司面临的问题。本文以油轮在新、马海峡的航行安全为研究目标,以目前海峡船舶通航现状、海峡的管理现状和航道的自然现状为基础,从“人—机—环境—管理”系统入手,用系统论的观点分析了海峡航行环境系统的安全性,逐一分析了影响船舶航行安全的各种因素的特性,选取了船舶在海峡安全航行的主要评价指标,确立了航行安全综合评价体系。由于评价指标的数目较多,并且分属不同的层次,故采用了层次分析法。借鉴了近年来比较成熟和理想的定量化评价方法,模糊综合评判,建立了新、马海峡水域油轮航行安全综合评判模型,通过广泛的专家调查,确立了各相应指标的权重以及各评价因素的隶属度。通过精确的数学计算,确定了各评价因素在油轮通过海峡的航行过程中,对保证船舶安全的重要程度,并通过实例分析验证了评判模型的实用性。本模型给船舶公司的安全管理、船舶的安全管理和船舶在海峡中的安全航行提供了较为可靠的规避风险和决策的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Singapore and Malacca Strait is one of the busiest ocean passages through which half of the total amount of shipping crude oil and 1/3 commodity trade of the world being transported. In 2005, China imported 1.27 hundred million tons crude oil and about 4/5 of which were transported through the Singapore and Malacca Strait. Nowadays there are about 200-300 vessels transit through the Singapore and Malacca Strait everyday, approximately 60% of which are from China and most of them are oil tanks.It is expected that the oil import will reach 2 hundred million tons in 2010, 1.5 hundred million tons of which still should be transported through the Singapore and Malacca Strait. Such mass transportation of crude oil results in the traffic density increasing at the rate of about 15% each year, and the number of large oil tanks is also increasing. Thus the degree of navigation danger is getting higher and the safety of vessel is getting lower with so many vessels being congested in such a limited water area. Improve the maneuvering and management of the oil tanks when transiting through the channel, also to ensure the navigation safety of the oil tanks and the safety of the transit of crude oil for China, and to protect the marine environment of the channel, Already became the question which the oil tanker and it’s the respective company’s faced.Hereby the comprehensive assessment system of navigation safety is put forward, which targets the navigation safety of oil tanks in the Singapore and Malacca Strait, basing on the actuality of the traffic, management and the environment of the channel, starting with the "human-ship-environment-management" system, after analysis on the navigational environmental safety of the channel and various elements affecting the navigation safety of vessels in detail with systematology method, the main assessment index for navigation safety in the channel are chosen. AHP is introduced because of the large number and different hierarchies of the assessment index. The comprehensive assessment model for navigation safety for oil tanks in the Singapore and Malacca Strait is put forward based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method- a relatively perfect mature quantity assessment method in recent years. Weights of each corresponding index and the subordinative degree of each assessment element is determined after extensive work with Delphi method. The importance of each assessment element to the navigation safety is determined after accurate calculation and the practicability of the model is validated with actual cases.This model provides relative reliable judgment for decision making and risk avoiding for the safety management for the company and the vessel, and for the navigation safety in the channel.更多还原