【作者】 刘露；

【导师】 陈君宁；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 企业管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 财务预警研究的发展一般以预警模型的发展为线索,因此财务预警研究通常是以研究模型的不同来进行分类,但在本论文中我们把财务预警研究按指标来源进行新的分类,那么企业财务预警研究可分为:以权责发生制为基础的传统财务指标预警,以收付实现制为基础的现金流量表相关指标预警以及最近新出现的自由现金流量,经济增加值,现金增加值三类新指标预警。这样分类的原因在于:财务预警发展到现在,大部分的研究都是以传统财务指标为基础,但是传统会计体制存在诸多弊端,人们迫切需要寻找新的指标来从理论上和实务上提高预警模型的效用,现金流量表相关指标纳入预警模型很好地弥补了传统指标的缺陷,并被证明提高了预警的准确度,在此之后部分研究文章认为自由现金流量,经济增加值,现金增加值这三类新指标同样具有很好的预警效果,但这些文章只是定性的进行了很粗略的分析。基于这种研究现状本文以预警指标为线索在对前两类指标预警进行总结的基础上从自由现金流量,经济增加值,现金增加值三类新指标原理上的区别,在财务预警中的应用优势,以及预警指标体系的建立三个方面进行了新的分析与探索,并对自由现金流量建立的指标体系进行预警的可行性进行了实证分析,希望以上的这些研究能为后续财务预警新的发展方向起到抛砖引玉的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The clue of Financial Early-warning research is usually the development of warning model, so people always class Financial Early-warning on the differences of the warning models. In this paper we class Financial Early-warning by the resources of indexes in a new way. The FEWCI(Financial Early-warning Composite Index) could be divided timely into three parts: traditional financial index based upon Accrual Basis, index of operating cash flow based upon Cash Basis and three kinds of indexes, such as FCF,EVA,CVA which appeared just recently.Most of the research paper is using the traditional financial index based upon Accrual Basis. There are many disadvantages of the Accrual Basis accounting, so people need to find new indexes by which we can improve the function of warning models in theoretical and practical way. The applicability of operating cash flow indexes which are based upon Cash Basis has been proved to eliminate these disadvantages in a way. After that some research said FCF, EVA, CVA could also have good performance in financial warning, but they do not give the exact and further analysis and also have not given the demonstration.In this paper, we try to differ these three financial early-warning indexes in both principles and foundations. We investigate their advantages and disadvantages and use the data analysis to give the evidence of using the FCF in the financial warning model. At last we give our suggestions for the future research in financial early-warning composite index and hope this paper could give some help to other researcher.更多还原