我国房地产市场风险的测度研究

【作者】 李辉；

【导师】 田成诗；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产业是一个国家国民经济的重要产业或支柱产业，与我国的国民经济发展和人民的生产生活休戚相关，在拉动经济、刺激消费等方面功不可没，已经成为国民经济发展的“晴雨表”。但当前我国房地产市场已经出现风险过大的苗头并成为我国宏观经济调控的重点，因而，对我国房地产市场进行风险测度的探索性研究，无论是对房地产市场还是对整个国家的宏观经济都具有重大的意义和价值。本文首先从风险理论的基础上对房地产市场风险进行了界定。针对房地产市场的特性，分析房地产市场风险的外在表现形式及内部生成机理。接着建立房地产风险测度体系。测度体系分以下三个方面：第一方面是从房地产泡沫的角度，借鉴前人的一些成熟的研究成果，用指标体系法，采用房地产开发投资与固定资产投资之比、房地产开发贷款占全部资金来源的比重、房价增长率与GDP增长率的比率和房价收入比四大指标实证分析了我国现阶段房地产市场的泡沫程度，得出现在我国的房地产市场虽然仍未出现泡沫，但已经明显过热的现象或者泡沫的倾向，需要引起各方面的注意的结论；第二方面是从房地产市场与宏观经济协调性的角度，利用非平稳序列的协整分析，从房地产销售价格与GDP、收入还有利率的协调角度，采用单位根检验、协整和误差修正模型度量房地产价格与宏观经济的协调性，分析我国房地产市场的风险，得出现阶段我国房地产市场的价格变化是符合我国经济高速增长的需要，并没有严重偏离我国居民支付水平的结论，但是个别城市房地产价格已经高于其经济增长的正常速度，需要时时把握其趋势，以防出现房地产风险；第三方面是从房地产市场与金融风险的角度，根据房地产风险与金融风险的共生性，利用房地上市公司的财务信息数据，采用了主成分分析和判别分析的统计方法，分析房地产市场风险，用此模型判别房地产企业的信用级别，为我国对房地产市场的调控提供了可靠的理论依据。最后将这三个方面的分析结果得出总的结论，并提出相应的宏观调控政策及建议：要防范和控制房地产市场风险，就必须站在一个宏观的角度，政府的宏观调控就不可或缺。政府应从完善金融市场、改革房地产土地开发制度及改善房地产产品结构等多环节进行全方位的改革。本文的创新点主要表现在：运用各种经济理论全面分析房地产市场风险因素及生成机理，通过房地产泡沫、房地产市场与宏观经济协调性以及房地产风险与金融风险共生性，建立一种比较全面、系统的风险分析与评价方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate is one of the most important industries of the country. It is closely boned up to people’s daily life and work, which is boundless beneficence in driving economy and activating consumption. It just likes a rain glass in our national economy. Currently, our national real estate market has appeared high risk incipient tendency. And it has become the key field of the macro-economic control. Thus taking groping research to our national real estate market has great Significance to both in real estate market and the whole macro economy.The article defined real estate risk according to the thesis of risk firstly. And analyze the outer manifestations and inner mechanism aimed characteristics of real estate. Then the article established the measurement system. The measurement system included three aspects as follows: the first aspect was from the real estate bubble point of view, building other’s mature output, using the four indictors that the ratio of investment in the real estate to investment in fixed asset, the ratio of real estate loan to whole sources of funds, the ratio of rate of housing price growth to rate of GDP growth, and the ratio of housing price to income. And drew the conclusion that though our national real estate market had not appeared bubble, it had appeared the tendency of bubble. It need attach importance to all departments. The second aspect was from correspondence of real estate market and macro economy point of view, using cointegration method of unstable time series. Taking real estate selling price and GDP, income, rate indictors analyze the real estate risk of our country. And drew the conclusion that at present the price changes of our real estate market fitted the high-speed economy growth’s demand. However, the real estate prices of some cities have exceeded the normal speed of economic growth; it needs to grasp the trend so as not to appear real estate risk. The third aspect was from the real estate market and finance risk point of view, according to the symbiosis of real estate risk and finance risk, using the finance data of real estate quoted company, analyzing real estate market risk adopting statistical methods of principal component analysis and discriminant analysis, and distinguish the credit level of real estate companies by the model. And the model will supply a creditable academic basis. Finally drew a total conclusion according to the three above, also put forward some macro economy control policies and suggestions as blow: to keep away and control real estate risk ,we must on the side of macro angle, the macro economy control of government was not absent. The government should reform from links as blow: perfecting finance market, reforming real estate development system, perfecting real estate product structure and do on.The innovation of the article mainly manifest that apply diversified economic thesis to analyze the factor and inner mechanism of the real estate market risk. The article built an all-around and systemic method for analyzing and evaluating real estate risk via real estate bubble, the correspondence of real estate market and macro economy, and the symbiosis of real estate risk and finance risk.更多还原