我国城镇居民消费过度敏感性和不确定性的实证分析

【作者】 马健；

【导师】 高铁梅；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 数量经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 消费作为拉动我国经济增长的“三驾马车”之一，其占GDP的比重远高于其他支出。而在最终消费中，城镇居民消费始终占主导地位，数量及其变动对宏观经济运行的影响很大。自20世纪90年代以来，随着我国经济的发展，城镇居民收入水平不断提高，消费支出也相应增长，但消费增长速度明显低于收入增长速度，因此我国城镇居民的消费倾向不断下降，居民消费率也相应下降。由于消费一直处于疲软状态，导致20世纪90年代后期中国出现经济紧缩、需求不足的现象，这已经成为制约我国建设社会主义和谐社会的一个主要矛盾。因此，提高居民的消费能力，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用应是当前宏观经济政策之取向。本文就近年来我国城镇居民消费倾向和居民消费率不断下降的现实，从消费的过度敏感性和消费支出的不确定性两方面做了理论和实证分析，具有较强的理论和现实意义。本文对我国城镇居民消费行为的现状进行了多角度的描述，分别从宏观视角和微观结构两个方面得出结论：我国城镇居民可支配收入不断增加，但消费倾向和消费率不断降低；消费结构变动较大，但升级面临着一定压力。其次本文结合理性预期持久收入(REPIH)假说和λ假说，从分收入阶层和分地区两个角度建立了Panel Data模型对我国城镇居民消费的过度敏感性进行初步检验和研究。然后，通过引入不确定性对模型进行扩展，继续从分收入阶层和分地区两个角度建立Panel Data模型研究不确定性情况下我国城镇居民消费的过度敏感性，并得出不确定性是影响消费过度敏感性的重要因素的结论。最后，得到结论：社会保障制度的改革使得居民消费支出预期发生了明显变化，并提出相应的政策建议：应该对不同收入阶层的城镇居民实施不同鼓励消费的措施；应加快相关制度的改革步伐，进一步完善城镇社会保障体系，使居民对自己未来消费支出有稳定的预期；调整产业和产品结构，形成新的消费热点，促进居民消费结构升级换代等。此外，还根据本文所作的主要工作和不足之处提出进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption, which is the largest contributor of the GDP, is the key factor of the troika of the growth of our economy. In the final consumption, the household consumption always plays the leading role, and its quantity and variety heavily influence the macro economy. Since the 1990s, with the development of our economy, the urban residents’ income has always been rising. In accord with that, the expenditure of the urban residents’ consumption rises as well. However, the rate of consumption increases is much slower than that of income, so propensity to consume declines and the consumption rate falls. Due to the sluggish consumer market, economic contraction and scant demand in China economy in 1990s became the principal contradiction in building up the harmonious socialist society. Strengthening the consuming capacity and enhancing the action of consumption in stimulating the economic growth should be the main macroeconomic policies. This thesis, in accord with the decline of the urban residents’ propensity to consume and the consumption rate, discusses two key points, i.e. the consumption excessive sensitivity and consumption expenditure uncertainty in theoretical and empirical analysis, thus having both theoretical and practical meaning.At first, this thesis draws the conclusion from different perspective, the urban residents’ disposable income keep on rising, but propensity to consume and the consumption rate falls; pattern of consumption changes greatly but the upgrading faces great difficulty. Then with basing on RE-PIH andλhypotheses, the author builds up four panel data models to check up the excessive consumption sensitivity of all the China urban classes, and of the East, Middle and West. The author also finds that after bringing in the proxy variable of uncertainty, the excessive sensitivity greatly shrinks. So we can say, the uncertainty of future expenditure heavily influences the excess sensitivity in consumption. Finally the author proposes some suggestion: we should adopt different measures to different residents; and speed up the reforming of relative policies, and further improve urban Social Security System in order to give the residents steady customer expenditure anticipation; and readjusting industrial and production structure to make hot consumption items to upgrade the customer structure, and so on. In addition, according to the innovation and limitations, the author makes some further suggestions.更多还原